Thursday, March 5, 2009

Dance Floor: March 6th

Well, predicted Big South champion Liberty got the axe by VMI in the anticipated game of the Big South tournament. VMI waxed the Flames by 20 on Radford's home floor. Now the Keydets will move on to face Radford on Saturday for the first spot in the NCAAs. 2008 MVC champion Drake also out in the opening round of Arch Madness; Indiana State picked up their first win taking down Drake 63-55. Now Indiana State has the tall task of battling Northern Iowa to really kick things off. Six tournaments either started on Thursday or get things tipped on Friday, and here are some previews.

ATLANTIC SUN
Semis: Friday
Finals: Saturday (ESPN2 6 p.m.)

Team to Watch: East Tennessee State
- The A-Sun has the single weirdest tournament bracket ever created. Only seven teams are featured in the conference tournament, a national low, but the one seed also gets a bye to the semifinals, the only granted bye in the tournament. The first round features the two ans seven seeds playing, the three and six and then the four and five. It's Greek to me. Who really knows. The principle of the matter is East Tennessee State got basically a warm-up game in on Wednesday night when they faced Stetson and cruised to a 14-point win. Kevin Tiggs can hoop and he proved it against Stetson, going for 37 points in the victory. With the tournament being played in Nashville, the Bucs have some home court advantage as they try and snag their first berth since they lost to Wake Forest and Josh Howard back in 2003. They got the most wins in the A-Sun and probably the most overall talent. They lost six conference games by a combined 37 points, evidence they brought it every night.

Cinderella: Belmont
- The Bruins would have been a Cinderella. Nearly beating Duke last year in the first round, they have essential experience and have do-it-all Alex Renfroe back for another season. Renfroe led the Bruins in every major statistical category and went for 38 in the season finale to regular season champion Jacksonville this evening.

Matchup to Watch: Semifinal Friday night (E Tennessee State vs. Belmont)
- As mentioned above, two guys that can really get it done offensively are featured in this one tomorrow night. Tiggs can take it from distance or post up smaller guards, he averages 21 a game. Renfroe can get it done himself or get others involved, he does everything to help Belmont be in position to win, but he can certainly take over a game if he has to.

Predicted Winner: Jacksonville
- Although the semifinal will be the game to watch and Belmont and E Tennessee have shown the capability to beat Jacksonville, I don't think they have the depth and athleticism to do it on the biggest stage. Jacksonville was the best team in the league all conference long, as they ran off ten in a row after a conference opening loss at East Tennessee. Jacksonville clips East Tennessee in a nail-biting final which should represent the A-Sun very well.

CAA
First Round: Friday
Quarters: Saturday
Semis: Sunday
Finals: Monday March 9 (7 p.m. ESPN)

A wide open tournament where any team from one to seven has a legitimate shot to think they can win this thing. A good year for the Colonial, but by no means great. No out of conference depth to speak of and a parity filled quality mid-major league just does not go as far as it used to. Having said that, there are alot of quality teams in this league that can run and gun with the best of them, and certainly some players that can make waves on a national scene. Whoever wins the CAA has the possibility to win a game or two in the Big one.

Team to Watch: Northeastern
- The Huskies led the regular season much of the way before dropping five of their last seven to fall all the way to the number three spot and tied for fourth. Matt Janning is a first-team all conference performer and has the ability to fill it up at anytime. The Huskies went down to Richmond and punched league champion VCU in the mouth, marking its high point of the league reign. They must once again find the swagger that led them to the huge victory and hope that a return to Richmond will signify that turnaround. They get a little bit of a break probably facing Drexel and then a George Mason team they match up extremely well with in the semifinal. Look for Northeastern to be there come title time.

Cinderella: Old Dominion
- Is Old Dominion at the number four spot a Cinderella? Probably not. And three weeks ago this team looked poised for a first round CAA exit. They traveled to Hofstra on Feb. 21 and got beat by nine, dropping them to sixth place and ways out of the discussion for a possible title. Then league rival VCU came to town and ODU got the win they needed. THey have not looked back, winning their last five including two close road wins. The Monarchs have the best post player in the league in Gerald Lee, and if you do not rebound against the Monarchs they wil ldestroy you inside with second chances.

Matchup: Mason/Northeastern (potential semi)
- Game 1, Mason leads by four with under two remaining when point guard John Vaughn suffers a concussion which would keep him out for two weeks, and transform Mason's season...Northeastern gets the win by one.
- Game 2, Northeastern travels to Mason where the Patriots were laying in the nest waiting for revenge. It was at the peak of Northeastern's five of seven game losing skid.
This will be the game of the tournament if it goes down because both teams are similar. Physical styles with guards that can fill it up. Mason has Vaughn, sniper Dre Smith and slasher Cam Long, all of which have gone for 25+ this season. Northeastern has Janning and slasher Chaisson Allen who is extremely long for his position. Inside it will be a brutal war. Mason's Darryl Monroe versus Northeastern's Manny Adako. Just sounds like a heavyweight battle. Northeastern finds a way to win with their brute strength.

Predicted Winner: VCU
- An extremely tepid selection here, the Rams are finally starting to play the basketball that CAA enthusiasts expected them to play with from the beginning. VCU went to JMU last Wednesday and picked up a win they would not have gotten in January and then dismantled Georgia State for Eric Maynor's senior day. The bracket lines up very interestingly for VCU however; they could face Delaware in the quarters who beat them at home in January, then Old Dominion, a rival who beat them just three weeks ago in Norfolk and then a rematch with Northeastern or George Mason. Northeastern beat them at home, and when VCU beat Mason, the Patriots were without point guard John Vaughn. With all that aside, Eric Maynor is a top five guard in the country and should be in the Dance.

Southern
First Round: Friday
Quarters: Saturday
Semis: Sunday
Finals: Monday (ESPN, 7 p.m.)

It starts and ends with Davidson. The Wildcats have quickly become the posterchild for mid-majors and the flagship program of the Southern Conference. Win and everything is well, all publicity positive and the hype will be everywhere. Lose and the SoCon's worst nightmare comes true...a probable 15-16 seed.

Team to Watch: Davidson
- If Stephen Curry were a team, he would be the team to watch. Instead its the Wildcats; two conference losses, both at home to the Citadel and Charleston came when Curry was not at his best. The nation's leading scorer, Curry averages 28.4 for Davidson but also leads them in assists. He does everything for them and will control this tournament. IF some defense can do something to stop him, it will go a long way into figuring out the Davidson plan..."Give it to Stephen, and hope everything is okay."

Cinderella: Charleston
- Again, how can a second place team in the division behind Davidson be considered a Cinderella? And the answer is simple, anyone who even plays Davidson close is a Cinderella because the hype is all over them. Charleston already beat the Wildcats once, went 23-7 with a 15-5 conference record. They have wins against South Carolina and TCU on the resume so they can roll with the bigger boys. They have won seven of their last eight and five in a row to end the season. Only problem, they may draw Davidson in the semifinals.

Matchup to Watch: Citadel vs. Davidson (potential final)
- Charleston/Davidson will probably be more interesting of a game, but the Citadel has a shot to be a real shocker here if they can catch Davidson or whoever off guard in the title game. The Bulldogs are relevant again in the SoCon, a shocker to the whole public; they won 11 straight league games in February and completed their first 20-win season in quite some time. They have won 11 of 12 with their only loss coming last Wednesday at Wofford, a team they were swept by in league play. They got Davidson at the perfect time, Curry was out with an ankle injury. But the Bulldogs got a little swagger to their name and if they can get there provide an interesting final.

Predicted Winner: Davidson
- It may be more interesting this season, but there is no way the result will be any different. I will be shocked if Davidson finds a way to blow this, Curry knows when to take a game over, especially in March. Expect the Wildcats to be dancing for the third straight season.

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