Thursday, October 29, 2009

Welcome to the Show

An exciting day for college basketball takes shape. Everything that is wrong but yet fun about NCAA hoops comes true today with the release of the Preseason top 25 poll by USA Today and ESPN. The season is now just ten days away, so plenty of time for previewing and analyzing teams of promise, potential and disappointment. At Midnight to March we are back for another action-packed season that looks quite formidable on paper, but we have a few secrets for the college basketball faithful that says its cut and dry what everyone should believe. Here is a look at the first poll...followed by some reaction.

1 Kansas
2 Michigan State
3 Texas
4 North Carolina
5 Kentucky
6 Villanova
7 Purdue
8 Duke
9 West Va
10 Butler
11 Tennessee
12 Cal
13 Washington
14 Connecticut
15 Michigan
16 Oklahoma
17 Ohio State
18 Minnesota
19 Mississippi State
20 Georgia Tech
21 Georgetown
22 Dayton
23 Louisville
24 Clemson
25 Syracuse

Pontifications

- So we'll start with the idea of preseason polls. The new sentiment out has become preseason polls ruin college athletics. While I mostly agree with this statement, they provide a basis for what to look for and what to expect for the season. For the average fan, they would have no idea if Dayton was figured to be atop the Atlantic 10 or if they were expected to be the ninth best team in Ohio. Preseason polls let us know this; they also give us a tremendous amount of stability. For example, last season's preseason number one was North Carolina and while not being at the top for all the season, in the end, the pollsters were correct. Kansas in 2008 was number 6 in the preseason...Florida number one in 2007. Florida's first title was an exception in 2006, the Gators were ranked 17. These polls give fans something to get excited about, and something for other fans to worry about but also keeping those expectations they have built in their psychological delusion of fanhood. So I'm okay with these polls, just, don't put too much stock in them, much of it will change.

- We will start at the top with number one Kansas. KU should be atop any preseason poll this season with the best team returning and much of the same swagger as the 07-08 team possessed. Last year it was Sherron Collins and Cole Alrich's team and they were moments from getting to the Elite 8 before getting beat by Tom Izzo's Michigan State (national title rematch??). The Jayhawks return everyone from that core team, and look to be a year stronger. Kansas possesses the unenviable position as odds-on favorite, but they do have some weaknesses. Kansas can score, they averaged 77 per game in their uptempo offense last season and lethal combination of Collins and Aldrich. Their problem comes in the willingness to defend. The Jayhawks periodically lull into moments where they don't even bother to defend teams that want to run. They get beat once and the help isn't there. Evidenced on the road with games such as at Texas Tech, at Arizona early last season and the early flop to Baylor in the Big 12 tournament. Signs of immaturity which this KU team probably will not have issues with. For Bill Self's sake, he's got a juggernaut of a squad that could cut the nets down in March.

- So...a team beats the preseason number one twice last season, including once in the NCAAs and they return everyone too. How are they not number one??? Great question and I do not have an answer. Kalin Lucas returns for Michigan State and he keeps Raymar Morgan and Durrell Summers with him. The defection of Goran Suton will hinder Sparty inside for the beginning of the season, but the way these guys looked in March, if they continue that, they are better than the Jayhawks. Impressive performances over Louisville in the Elite 8 and Connecticut in the Final Four give evidence that Tom Izzo's team will still defend and now has explosiveness for the guys from East Lansing. Lucas will add his name alongside Mateen Cleaves, Magic Johnson and Eric Snow. This MSU team will have issues inside, and games against Texas, North Carolina and Florida early could illustrate that.

Quick Hitters
- Kentucky at number five (higher than they should be) after everyone said they would be number one. No team will snag a top ranking with five freshmen on the top of the list to contribute.

- Thankfully Butler gets a high preseason ranking. Horizon POY Matt Howard may be a top five big man in the country, and the Bulldogs definitely deserve this high, if not higher. The Bulldogs will get a shot at some big timers as well, playing in the 76 Classic where they open with Minnesota. Could be a big time season for Hinkle.

- Michigan gets a lofty ranking early...John Beilein wiggled this team into the second round and will be very sneaky this year in a promising Big Ten. Great scheduling as well...the only early season test will be the Wolverines going to Lawrence to face KU.

- Rick Stansbury's Mississippi State club is poised for a big time year in a down SEC (yet again). 6-9 Jarvis Varnado averaged 13 and 9 last season and the show will be his this season, so watch out. The Bulldogs combine very imposing size with an easy schedule early (they don't leave home until Dec. 12 at UCLA) to garner some attention. Your top SEC team folks! (you heard me Knoxville and Lexington).

- 5 Big Ten teams in the top 25 (Purdue, Michigan, Ohio State, Minnesota and MSU) leads me to believe this season will be stressing physical basketball which does not lead to exciting games. The Big Ten is terrible to watch for a fan looking for entertainment and I really don't think the Big Ten will have much success nationally. None of these teams except Michigan State can stay on the floor athletically with Big 12 and ACC teams.

- Can Siena get some love??? Back to back NCAA appearances just doesn't go as far as it used to. The top mid-major power this season outside of Butler, the Saints hung with Louisville in the second round in Dayton and got a great win over Ohio State in Dayton as well. Edwin Ubiles is a star and Siena should get back to the 'Dance. Some early season winnable tests against "power" conference teams will certainly look good come March.

- With a little more than a week away, I can't wait to tip it off.