It's Selection Sunday. That's all you really need to know. 65 teams will be placed into a bracket where prognostication and prediction will be analyzed heavily over the next four days in preparation for a final four as well as a Cinderella. I have made my final projection, even down to the last minute with Mississippi State stealing Saint Mary's bid and squandering the field a little more than it already was. Here's the last projection:
East (Boston) West (Phoenix) Midwest (Indy) South (Memp)
1 North Carolina Connecticut Louisville Pittsburgh
2 Michigan State Memphis Oklahoma Duke
3 Missouri Kansas Wake Forest Syracuse
4 Villanova Gonzaga Xavier Washington
5 Purdue Utah Tennessee LSU
6 Marquette Illinois W Va UCLA
7 Clemson Florida State Arizona State Texas
8 BYU Butler Ohio State Cal
9 Utah State BC Siena Dayton
10 Oklahoma State Texas A&M Wisconsin Minnesota
11 Arizona USC Michigan Temple
12 Maryland Miss State VCU Cleveland State
13 W Kentucky Akron ND State N iowa
14 Binghamton E Tennessee St Cornell American
15 Robert Morris CS Northridge Portland State Steph F Austin
16 Radford Morgan State BamaSt/Chatt Morehead State
HIGH SEED HOSTS:
Greensboro --> Duke, UNC
Philadelphia --> Villanova, Pittsburgh
Minneapolis --> Michigan State, Xavier
Boise --> Oklahoma, Wake
Miami --> Memphis, Syracuse
Portland --> Gonzaga, Washington
Kansas City --> Kansas, Missouri
Dayton --> Louisville, Connecticut
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Dance Floor: March 6th
Well, predicted Big South champion Liberty got the axe by VMI in the anticipated game of the Big South tournament. VMI waxed the Flames by 20 on Radford's home floor. Now the Keydets will move on to face Radford on Saturday for the first spot in the NCAAs. 2008 MVC champion Drake also out in the opening round of Arch Madness; Indiana State picked up their first win taking down Drake 63-55. Now Indiana State has the tall task of battling Northern Iowa to really kick things off. Six tournaments either started on Thursday or get things tipped on Friday, and here are some previews.
ATLANTIC SUN
Semis: Friday
Finals: Saturday (ESPN2 6 p.m.)
Team to Watch: East Tennessee State
- The A-Sun has the single weirdest tournament bracket ever created. Only seven teams are featured in the conference tournament, a national low, but the one seed also gets a bye to the semifinals, the only granted bye in the tournament. The first round features the two ans seven seeds playing, the three and six and then the four and five. It's Greek to me. Who really knows. The principle of the matter is East Tennessee State got basically a warm-up game in on Wednesday night when they faced Stetson and cruised to a 14-point win. Kevin Tiggs can hoop and he proved it against Stetson, going for 37 points in the victory. With the tournament being played in Nashville, the Bucs have some home court advantage as they try and snag their first berth since they lost to Wake Forest and Josh Howard back in 2003. They got the most wins in the A-Sun and probably the most overall talent. They lost six conference games by a combined 37 points, evidence they brought it every night.
Cinderella: Belmont
- The Bruins would have been a Cinderella. Nearly beating Duke last year in the first round, they have essential experience and have do-it-all Alex Renfroe back for another season. Renfroe led the Bruins in every major statistical category and went for 38 in the season finale to regular season champion Jacksonville this evening.
Matchup to Watch: Semifinal Friday night (E Tennessee State vs. Belmont)
- As mentioned above, two guys that can really get it done offensively are featured in this one tomorrow night. Tiggs can take it from distance or post up smaller guards, he averages 21 a game. Renfroe can get it done himself or get others involved, he does everything to help Belmont be in position to win, but he can certainly take over a game if he has to.
Predicted Winner: Jacksonville
- Although the semifinal will be the game to watch and Belmont and E Tennessee have shown the capability to beat Jacksonville, I don't think they have the depth and athleticism to do it on the biggest stage. Jacksonville was the best team in the league all conference long, as they ran off ten in a row after a conference opening loss at East Tennessee. Jacksonville clips East Tennessee in a nail-biting final which should represent the A-Sun very well.
CAA
First Round: Friday
Quarters: Saturday
Semis: Sunday
Finals: Monday March 9 (7 p.m. ESPN)
A wide open tournament where any team from one to seven has a legitimate shot to think they can win this thing. A good year for the Colonial, but by no means great. No out of conference depth to speak of and a parity filled quality mid-major league just does not go as far as it used to. Having said that, there are alot of quality teams in this league that can run and gun with the best of them, and certainly some players that can make waves on a national scene. Whoever wins the CAA has the possibility to win a game or two in the Big one.
Team to Watch: Northeastern
- The Huskies led the regular season much of the way before dropping five of their last seven to fall all the way to the number three spot and tied for fourth. Matt Janning is a first-team all conference performer and has the ability to fill it up at anytime. The Huskies went down to Richmond and punched league champion VCU in the mouth, marking its high point of the league reign. They must once again find the swagger that led them to the huge victory and hope that a return to Richmond will signify that turnaround. They get a little bit of a break probably facing Drexel and then a George Mason team they match up extremely well with in the semifinal. Look for Northeastern to be there come title time.
Cinderella: Old Dominion
- Is Old Dominion at the number four spot a Cinderella? Probably not. And three weeks ago this team looked poised for a first round CAA exit. They traveled to Hofstra on Feb. 21 and got beat by nine, dropping them to sixth place and ways out of the discussion for a possible title. Then league rival VCU came to town and ODU got the win they needed. THey have not looked back, winning their last five including two close road wins. The Monarchs have the best post player in the league in Gerald Lee, and if you do not rebound against the Monarchs they wil ldestroy you inside with second chances.
Matchup: Mason/Northeastern (potential semi)
- Game 1, Mason leads by four with under two remaining when point guard John Vaughn suffers a concussion which would keep him out for two weeks, and transform Mason's season...Northeastern gets the win by one.
- Game 2, Northeastern travels to Mason where the Patriots were laying in the nest waiting for revenge. It was at the peak of Northeastern's five of seven game losing skid.
This will be the game of the tournament if it goes down because both teams are similar. Physical styles with guards that can fill it up. Mason has Vaughn, sniper Dre Smith and slasher Cam Long, all of which have gone for 25+ this season. Northeastern has Janning and slasher Chaisson Allen who is extremely long for his position. Inside it will be a brutal war. Mason's Darryl Monroe versus Northeastern's Manny Adako. Just sounds like a heavyweight battle. Northeastern finds a way to win with their brute strength.
Predicted Winner: VCU
- An extremely tepid selection here, the Rams are finally starting to play the basketball that CAA enthusiasts expected them to play with from the beginning. VCU went to JMU last Wednesday and picked up a win they would not have gotten in January and then dismantled Georgia State for Eric Maynor's senior day. The bracket lines up very interestingly for VCU however; they could face Delaware in the quarters who beat them at home in January, then Old Dominion, a rival who beat them just three weeks ago in Norfolk and then a rematch with Northeastern or George Mason. Northeastern beat them at home, and when VCU beat Mason, the Patriots were without point guard John Vaughn. With all that aside, Eric Maynor is a top five guard in the country and should be in the Dance.
Southern
First Round: Friday
Quarters: Saturday
Semis: Sunday
Finals: Monday (ESPN, 7 p.m.)
It starts and ends with Davidson. The Wildcats have quickly become the posterchild for mid-majors and the flagship program of the Southern Conference. Win and everything is well, all publicity positive and the hype will be everywhere. Lose and the SoCon's worst nightmare comes true...a probable 15-16 seed.
Team to Watch: Davidson
- If Stephen Curry were a team, he would be the team to watch. Instead its the Wildcats; two conference losses, both at home to the Citadel and Charleston came when Curry was not at his best. The nation's leading scorer, Curry averages 28.4 for Davidson but also leads them in assists. He does everything for them and will control this tournament. IF some defense can do something to stop him, it will go a long way into figuring out the Davidson plan..."Give it to Stephen, and hope everything is okay."
Cinderella: Charleston
- Again, how can a second place team in the division behind Davidson be considered a Cinderella? And the answer is simple, anyone who even plays Davidson close is a Cinderella because the hype is all over them. Charleston already beat the Wildcats once, went 23-7 with a 15-5 conference record. They have wins against South Carolina and TCU on the resume so they can roll with the bigger boys. They have won seven of their last eight and five in a row to end the season. Only problem, they may draw Davidson in the semifinals.
Matchup to Watch: Citadel vs. Davidson (potential final)
- Charleston/Davidson will probably be more interesting of a game, but the Citadel has a shot to be a real shocker here if they can catch Davidson or whoever off guard in the title game. The Bulldogs are relevant again in the SoCon, a shocker to the whole public; they won 11 straight league games in February and completed their first 20-win season in quite some time. They have won 11 of 12 with their only loss coming last Wednesday at Wofford, a team they were swept by in league play. They got Davidson at the perfect time, Curry was out with an ankle injury. But the Bulldogs got a little swagger to their name and if they can get there provide an interesting final.
Predicted Winner: Davidson
- It may be more interesting this season, but there is no way the result will be any different. I will be shocked if Davidson finds a way to blow this, Curry knows when to take a game over, especially in March. Expect the Wildcats to be dancing for the third straight season.
ATLANTIC SUN
Semis: Friday
Finals: Saturday (ESPN2 6 p.m.)
Team to Watch: East Tennessee State
- The A-Sun has the single weirdest tournament bracket ever created. Only seven teams are featured in the conference tournament, a national low, but the one seed also gets a bye to the semifinals, the only granted bye in the tournament. The first round features the two ans seven seeds playing, the three and six and then the four and five. It's Greek to me. Who really knows. The principle of the matter is East Tennessee State got basically a warm-up game in on Wednesday night when they faced Stetson and cruised to a 14-point win. Kevin Tiggs can hoop and he proved it against Stetson, going for 37 points in the victory. With the tournament being played in Nashville, the Bucs have some home court advantage as they try and snag their first berth since they lost to Wake Forest and Josh Howard back in 2003. They got the most wins in the A-Sun and probably the most overall talent. They lost six conference games by a combined 37 points, evidence they brought it every night.
Cinderella: Belmont
- The Bruins would have been a Cinderella. Nearly beating Duke last year in the first round, they have essential experience and have do-it-all Alex Renfroe back for another season. Renfroe led the Bruins in every major statistical category and went for 38 in the season finale to regular season champion Jacksonville this evening.
Matchup to Watch: Semifinal Friday night (E Tennessee State vs. Belmont)
- As mentioned above, two guys that can really get it done offensively are featured in this one tomorrow night. Tiggs can take it from distance or post up smaller guards, he averages 21 a game. Renfroe can get it done himself or get others involved, he does everything to help Belmont be in position to win, but he can certainly take over a game if he has to.
Predicted Winner: Jacksonville
- Although the semifinal will be the game to watch and Belmont and E Tennessee have shown the capability to beat Jacksonville, I don't think they have the depth and athleticism to do it on the biggest stage. Jacksonville was the best team in the league all conference long, as they ran off ten in a row after a conference opening loss at East Tennessee. Jacksonville clips East Tennessee in a nail-biting final which should represent the A-Sun very well.
CAA
First Round: Friday
Quarters: Saturday
Semis: Sunday
Finals: Monday March 9 (7 p.m. ESPN)
A wide open tournament where any team from one to seven has a legitimate shot to think they can win this thing. A good year for the Colonial, but by no means great. No out of conference depth to speak of and a parity filled quality mid-major league just does not go as far as it used to. Having said that, there are alot of quality teams in this league that can run and gun with the best of them, and certainly some players that can make waves on a national scene. Whoever wins the CAA has the possibility to win a game or two in the Big one.
Team to Watch: Northeastern
- The Huskies led the regular season much of the way before dropping five of their last seven to fall all the way to the number three spot and tied for fourth. Matt Janning is a first-team all conference performer and has the ability to fill it up at anytime. The Huskies went down to Richmond and punched league champion VCU in the mouth, marking its high point of the league reign. They must once again find the swagger that led them to the huge victory and hope that a return to Richmond will signify that turnaround. They get a little bit of a break probably facing Drexel and then a George Mason team they match up extremely well with in the semifinal. Look for Northeastern to be there come title time.
Cinderella: Old Dominion
- Is Old Dominion at the number four spot a Cinderella? Probably not. And three weeks ago this team looked poised for a first round CAA exit. They traveled to Hofstra on Feb. 21 and got beat by nine, dropping them to sixth place and ways out of the discussion for a possible title. Then league rival VCU came to town and ODU got the win they needed. THey have not looked back, winning their last five including two close road wins. The Monarchs have the best post player in the league in Gerald Lee, and if you do not rebound against the Monarchs they wil ldestroy you inside with second chances.
Matchup: Mason/Northeastern (potential semi)
- Game 1, Mason leads by four with under two remaining when point guard John Vaughn suffers a concussion which would keep him out for two weeks, and transform Mason's season...Northeastern gets the win by one.
- Game 2, Northeastern travels to Mason where the Patriots were laying in the nest waiting for revenge. It was at the peak of Northeastern's five of seven game losing skid.
This will be the game of the tournament if it goes down because both teams are similar. Physical styles with guards that can fill it up. Mason has Vaughn, sniper Dre Smith and slasher Cam Long, all of which have gone for 25+ this season. Northeastern has Janning and slasher Chaisson Allen who is extremely long for his position. Inside it will be a brutal war. Mason's Darryl Monroe versus Northeastern's Manny Adako. Just sounds like a heavyweight battle. Northeastern finds a way to win with their brute strength.
Predicted Winner: VCU
- An extremely tepid selection here, the Rams are finally starting to play the basketball that CAA enthusiasts expected them to play with from the beginning. VCU went to JMU last Wednesday and picked up a win they would not have gotten in January and then dismantled Georgia State for Eric Maynor's senior day. The bracket lines up very interestingly for VCU however; they could face Delaware in the quarters who beat them at home in January, then Old Dominion, a rival who beat them just three weeks ago in Norfolk and then a rematch with Northeastern or George Mason. Northeastern beat them at home, and when VCU beat Mason, the Patriots were without point guard John Vaughn. With all that aside, Eric Maynor is a top five guard in the country and should be in the Dance.
Southern
First Round: Friday
Quarters: Saturday
Semis: Sunday
Finals: Monday (ESPN, 7 p.m.)
It starts and ends with Davidson. The Wildcats have quickly become the posterchild for mid-majors and the flagship program of the Southern Conference. Win and everything is well, all publicity positive and the hype will be everywhere. Lose and the SoCon's worst nightmare comes true...a probable 15-16 seed.
Team to Watch: Davidson
- If Stephen Curry were a team, he would be the team to watch. Instead its the Wildcats; two conference losses, both at home to the Citadel and Charleston came when Curry was not at his best. The nation's leading scorer, Curry averages 28.4 for Davidson but also leads them in assists. He does everything for them and will control this tournament. IF some defense can do something to stop him, it will go a long way into figuring out the Davidson plan..."Give it to Stephen, and hope everything is okay."
Cinderella: Charleston
- Again, how can a second place team in the division behind Davidson be considered a Cinderella? And the answer is simple, anyone who even plays Davidson close is a Cinderella because the hype is all over them. Charleston already beat the Wildcats once, went 23-7 with a 15-5 conference record. They have wins against South Carolina and TCU on the resume so they can roll with the bigger boys. They have won seven of their last eight and five in a row to end the season. Only problem, they may draw Davidson in the semifinals.
Matchup to Watch: Citadel vs. Davidson (potential final)
- Charleston/Davidson will probably be more interesting of a game, but the Citadel has a shot to be a real shocker here if they can catch Davidson or whoever off guard in the title game. The Bulldogs are relevant again in the SoCon, a shocker to the whole public; they won 11 straight league games in February and completed their first 20-win season in quite some time. They have won 11 of 12 with their only loss coming last Wednesday at Wofford, a team they were swept by in league play. They got Davidson at the perfect time, Curry was out with an ankle injury. But the Bulldogs got a little swagger to their name and if they can get there provide an interesting final.
Predicted Winner: Davidson
- It may be more interesting this season, but there is no way the result will be any different. I will be shocked if Davidson finds a way to blow this, Curry knows when to take a game over, especially in March. Expect the Wildcats to be dancing for the third straight season.
Monday, March 2, 2009
Dance Floor: March 2nd
The Dance Floor will be the daily recap and preview of conference tournaments and later on the NCAA Tournament. The Dance Floor is empty right now, much like a middle school dance, waiting for someone to get the nerve to break the ice. Tipping off on Tuesday night are the Horizon League, the Ohio Valley Conference and the Big South. We will take a look at each conference tournament, giving predcitions, insight and keys to the right team finding the right dancing shoes.
Big South
Quarters: Tuesday March 3 (campus sites)
Semis: Thursday March 5 (regular season champ Radford)
Finals: Saturday March 7 (ESPN2, 4 p.m., higher seed)
- The Big South is one of my favorite conference tournaments because it is played like a high school district tournament. For the most part, all games are at higher seeds, and there are no byes, no protection for the top teams which is a great and terrible thing. Great because anything can happen, the true epitomy of March Madness. Terrible because of that same reason; the Big South really does not want seventh place Coastal Carolina winning the tournament. It has been an intriguing league all season with Radford running things from wire to wire, but VMI making some noise out of conference, beating both BCS schools Virginia and Kentucky on the road. Radford won the league by two games in the regular season (15-3, 18-11) and winning 14 of their last 16. Liberty beat Radford at Radford on the last day of the regular season. Radford was hideous in the non-con, going only 3-8 with no wins over top 200 RPI teams.
Team to Watch: Liberty
- The Flames have probably the best coach in the league in former New Mexico head man Ritchie McKay and they have the best player in the league in freshman Seth Curry. Yes, brother of Stephen; maybe he has some March magic in his back pocket. Liberty won at Virginia in November, beat George Mason at home and gave Clemson all they could handle in Littlejohn in December losing 80-75. They have won five of seven and have the potential to be the thorn in the side of Radford.
Game to Watch: Liberty/VMI potential semi
- Each team won during the regular season on the road, VMI by 37 a Liberty, and Liberty by 11 at VMI. The third meeting would be very entertaining because when Liberty opens it up they normally can score right with VMI. The question will be can VMI lock up on defense as they did in the last meeting.
Cinderella: Winthrop
- Never, ever discount history. Winthrop won this league tournament for four consecutive seasons and although they are nowhere near as talented or experienced as those seasons, here is an interesting fact. Winthrop played two non conference home games all season. Two. They played six road games, five of which against BCS talent-worthy schools (Davison, Akron, South Carolina, N.C. State, Old DOminion and Florida). Those games get you prepared and better, and that is why if there is any team to make some noise in the tourney, it will be Winthrop. They have also won their last five to close out the regular season. They will open with a winnable game at UNC-Asheville and then a possible date at Radford.
Predicted winner: Liberty
- Radford has alot of trouble quelling guard play and both VMI and Liberty feature quality guards. The Radford home court has proved beatable, they dropped home league games to Gardner-Webb, Liberty and VMI. VMI is not committed enough to play defense for 40 minutes, something Ritchie McKay will make his squad do, especially in a win or go home situation. I'll take Liberty with the tourney win here, just because of coaching and they have one guy that is able to take them to the promised land in Curry. Although just a freshman, big bro Stephen did the same in 2007.
Horizon League
First Round: Tuesday March 3 (campus sites)
Quarters: Friday March 6 (@ Butler)
Semis: Saturday March 7 (ESPNU 7 & 9, @ Butler)
Finals: Tuesday March 10 (ESPN, 9 p.m.)
- The Horizon features the exact opposite of the Big South. They protect the top two seeds in the bracket by providing them with a double-bye into the semifinals; making second place an extreme advantage. This year's tournament is at Butler, really the only place it should ever be as the Bulldogs are the top seed yet again, defying the logic they would relinquish the throne in '08-'09. Wisc. Green Bay nipped both Cleveland State and Wright State for the second spot, allowing Green Bay to only need one win for a spot in the title, where all the others will need three wins to get there. Butler was clearly the best team in the league and freshman swingman Gordon Hayward has filled the void left by Butler seniors from last season. Butler's RPI is out of this world for a mid-major as they feature quality wins against Northwestern, @ Xavier, UAB, @ Davidson and Bradley all on their resume.
Team to Watch: Cleveland State
- I am not giving up on the Vikings just yet. They went out this season and scheduled some big time teams in order to position themselves for a possible at large selection. That quickly went out the window when the only win they got was at Syracuse. Although still a major victory, the Vikings have not taken the big step up they were expected to with everyone returning. This is exactly the reason they have to be on the radar. J'Nathan Bullock was preseason player of the year and has still played well, averaging 15 and seven. They were in both games with Butler, dropping both by two points, including a contest on the last day of the regular season in which they led deep into the second half. If the Vikings can get to the title game it will be their fourth game in a week, a difficult task. But if so, it will provide the most entertaining final.
Matchup to Watch: Cleveland State/Wis. Green Bay (potential semi)
- It will be on Butler's home court, just minutes after Butler's semifinal game. This will be the most intriguing matchup of the tournament because they split their reular season meetings, each winning handedly at home. Green Bay won three out of the last four games to earn the bye into the semis over Cleveland and Wright State, who beat the Phoenix on the last day of the year. Green Bay has been the surprise of the season, as Cleveland, Butler and Wright were figured to be head and shoulders above the rest. Green Bay got down big early to Cleveland in their last meeting and could not stop guard Cedric Jackson who was two assists away from a triple double.
Potential Cinderella: Illinois-Chicago
- UIC has not exactly lit the world on fire during the Horizon season, but the Flames (7-11, 15-14) were in almost every game against the upper eschalant teams in the conference. The Flames have won five of their last six including four in a row to end the season and really struggled in the end of January during a four game road swing. They lost to Butler by seven at home and Green bay by 11 and seven. They beat Wright State at home and also caputred a BracketBuster win against Southern Illinois. They open up home versus Youngstown State, where they dropped both during the season. They would then face Wright State with a possible matchup with Butler down the road.
Predicted Champion: Cleveland State
- Giving the Vikings a chance to reconcile what they missed out on during the season. They have already dropped two to Butler and need to beat Wis. Green Bay to even get to a possible matchup. I think playing more games will keep Cleveland State on guard and should not face a real test until the semifinals on Saturday. As a result, they will be ready to take on Butler again at Hinkle, where they near;y pulled off the upset on Feb. 28. This time the Vikings get it done, and head to the dance, stealing a bid from a BCS school somewhere.
OHIO VALLEY
First Round: Tuesday March 3 (campus sites)
Semis: Friday March 6 (Nashville, ESPNU 7 & 9)
Finals: Saturday March 7 (ESPN2, 8 p.m.)
- One of the best players in the country lies in the OVC, Tenn-Martin guard Lester Hudson. Hudson is in the top ten in the country in scoring at 27.4 and he also averages 7.4 boards per game for the Skyhawks. He is a solid NBA prospect and you will know this guy's name this time next year. Whether that is for the NCAA tournament or the NBA Draft is the real question. Tenn. Martin was the best team in the league all year long, even though they took it on the chin in the non-con because they went out and played people. They have won 13 of 15 and only got beat on the road in conference. Right behind the Skyhawks, Murray State and Austin Peay finished tied for second place, both teams beating Martin at home.
Team to Watch: Murray State
- The Racers dominated the league in the '90s and have had nothing to speak of all decade. This season Murray regained respectability and are playing their best ball right now. They have won seven out of eight, the only loss coming in the BracketBuster to La. Tech. Murray is interesting; they have a balanced attack with seven guys averaging over 20 minutes per game and five guys averaging over eight points per game. The exact opposite of Tenn. Martin; Murray does not have the firepower but has a consistent outlook that could give some teams without alot of depth some trouble.
Matchup to Watch: Final
- Obviously the biggest game of the tournament, but it will certainly be the best matchup. Tenn. Martin versus whoever will raise interest and get a national audience to see Hudson, something NBA scouts need to see. Hudson faltered on the big stage, caving in during road games at Tennessee and USC. The key will be how Martin handles a deep Murray team or a rock hard Austin Peay team that went to the NCAAs last season.
Potential Cinderella: Tennessee State (12-17)
- Yes the Tigers got killed by Murray State and Tenn Martin at home in back-to-back games. Yes they dropped eight of nine in January. But they are playing real good basketball having won six straight, three of which on the road. The Tigers had a seven game road trip in December where they played Alabama, Kentucky and Georgia Tech. Sure they got killed, but they gained comfort on the road. Nothing they will see will shock them, and I think they may be ready to take a big step here. They avoid juggernaut Tenn Martin in the upper half of the bracket and get Austin Peay in the first round.
Predicted Champ: Tennessee-Martin
- Lester Hudson will not let this team lose. Period.
Big South
Quarters: Tuesday March 3 (campus sites)
Semis: Thursday March 5 (regular season champ Radford)
Finals: Saturday March 7 (ESPN2, 4 p.m., higher seed)
- The Big South is one of my favorite conference tournaments because it is played like a high school district tournament. For the most part, all games are at higher seeds, and there are no byes, no protection for the top teams which is a great and terrible thing. Great because anything can happen, the true epitomy of March Madness. Terrible because of that same reason; the Big South really does not want seventh place Coastal Carolina winning the tournament. It has been an intriguing league all season with Radford running things from wire to wire, but VMI making some noise out of conference, beating both BCS schools Virginia and Kentucky on the road. Radford won the league by two games in the regular season (15-3, 18-11) and winning 14 of their last 16. Liberty beat Radford at Radford on the last day of the regular season. Radford was hideous in the non-con, going only 3-8 with no wins over top 200 RPI teams.
Team to Watch: Liberty
- The Flames have probably the best coach in the league in former New Mexico head man Ritchie McKay and they have the best player in the league in freshman Seth Curry. Yes, brother of Stephen; maybe he has some March magic in his back pocket. Liberty won at Virginia in November, beat George Mason at home and gave Clemson all they could handle in Littlejohn in December losing 80-75. They have won five of seven and have the potential to be the thorn in the side of Radford.
Game to Watch: Liberty/VMI potential semi
- Each team won during the regular season on the road, VMI by 37 a Liberty, and Liberty by 11 at VMI. The third meeting would be very entertaining because when Liberty opens it up they normally can score right with VMI. The question will be can VMI lock up on defense as they did in the last meeting.
Cinderella: Winthrop
- Never, ever discount history. Winthrop won this league tournament for four consecutive seasons and although they are nowhere near as talented or experienced as those seasons, here is an interesting fact. Winthrop played two non conference home games all season. Two. They played six road games, five of which against BCS talent-worthy schools (Davison, Akron, South Carolina, N.C. State, Old DOminion and Florida). Those games get you prepared and better, and that is why if there is any team to make some noise in the tourney, it will be Winthrop. They have also won their last five to close out the regular season. They will open with a winnable game at UNC-Asheville and then a possible date at Radford.
Predicted winner: Liberty
- Radford has alot of trouble quelling guard play and both VMI and Liberty feature quality guards. The Radford home court has proved beatable, they dropped home league games to Gardner-Webb, Liberty and VMI. VMI is not committed enough to play defense for 40 minutes, something Ritchie McKay will make his squad do, especially in a win or go home situation. I'll take Liberty with the tourney win here, just because of coaching and they have one guy that is able to take them to the promised land in Curry. Although just a freshman, big bro Stephen did the same in 2007.
Horizon League
First Round: Tuesday March 3 (campus sites)
Quarters: Friday March 6 (@ Butler)
Semis: Saturday March 7 (ESPNU 7 & 9, @ Butler)
Finals: Tuesday March 10 (ESPN, 9 p.m.)
- The Horizon features the exact opposite of the Big South. They protect the top two seeds in the bracket by providing them with a double-bye into the semifinals; making second place an extreme advantage. This year's tournament is at Butler, really the only place it should ever be as the Bulldogs are the top seed yet again, defying the logic they would relinquish the throne in '08-'09. Wisc. Green Bay nipped both Cleveland State and Wright State for the second spot, allowing Green Bay to only need one win for a spot in the title, where all the others will need three wins to get there. Butler was clearly the best team in the league and freshman swingman Gordon Hayward has filled the void left by Butler seniors from last season. Butler's RPI is out of this world for a mid-major as they feature quality wins against Northwestern, @ Xavier, UAB, @ Davidson and Bradley all on their resume.
Team to Watch: Cleveland State
- I am not giving up on the Vikings just yet. They went out this season and scheduled some big time teams in order to position themselves for a possible at large selection. That quickly went out the window when the only win they got was at Syracuse. Although still a major victory, the Vikings have not taken the big step up they were expected to with everyone returning. This is exactly the reason they have to be on the radar. J'Nathan Bullock was preseason player of the year and has still played well, averaging 15 and seven. They were in both games with Butler, dropping both by two points, including a contest on the last day of the regular season in which they led deep into the second half. If the Vikings can get to the title game it will be their fourth game in a week, a difficult task. But if so, it will provide the most entertaining final.
Matchup to Watch: Cleveland State/Wis. Green Bay (potential semi)
- It will be on Butler's home court, just minutes after Butler's semifinal game. This will be the most intriguing matchup of the tournament because they split their reular season meetings, each winning handedly at home. Green Bay won three out of the last four games to earn the bye into the semis over Cleveland and Wright State, who beat the Phoenix on the last day of the year. Green Bay has been the surprise of the season, as Cleveland, Butler and Wright were figured to be head and shoulders above the rest. Green Bay got down big early to Cleveland in their last meeting and could not stop guard Cedric Jackson who was two assists away from a triple double.
Potential Cinderella: Illinois-Chicago
- UIC has not exactly lit the world on fire during the Horizon season, but the Flames (7-11, 15-14) were in almost every game against the upper eschalant teams in the conference. The Flames have won five of their last six including four in a row to end the season and really struggled in the end of January during a four game road swing. They lost to Butler by seven at home and Green bay by 11 and seven. They beat Wright State at home and also caputred a BracketBuster win against Southern Illinois. They open up home versus Youngstown State, where they dropped both during the season. They would then face Wright State with a possible matchup with Butler down the road.
Predicted Champion: Cleveland State
- Giving the Vikings a chance to reconcile what they missed out on during the season. They have already dropped two to Butler and need to beat Wis. Green Bay to even get to a possible matchup. I think playing more games will keep Cleveland State on guard and should not face a real test until the semifinals on Saturday. As a result, they will be ready to take on Butler again at Hinkle, where they near;y pulled off the upset on Feb. 28. This time the Vikings get it done, and head to the dance, stealing a bid from a BCS school somewhere.
OHIO VALLEY
First Round: Tuesday March 3 (campus sites)
Semis: Friday March 6 (Nashville, ESPNU 7 & 9)
Finals: Saturday March 7 (ESPN2, 8 p.m.)
- One of the best players in the country lies in the OVC, Tenn-Martin guard Lester Hudson. Hudson is in the top ten in the country in scoring at 27.4 and he also averages 7.4 boards per game for the Skyhawks. He is a solid NBA prospect and you will know this guy's name this time next year. Whether that is for the NCAA tournament or the NBA Draft is the real question. Tenn. Martin was the best team in the league all year long, even though they took it on the chin in the non-con because they went out and played people. They have won 13 of 15 and only got beat on the road in conference. Right behind the Skyhawks, Murray State and Austin Peay finished tied for second place, both teams beating Martin at home.
Team to Watch: Murray State
- The Racers dominated the league in the '90s and have had nothing to speak of all decade. This season Murray regained respectability and are playing their best ball right now. They have won seven out of eight, the only loss coming in the BracketBuster to La. Tech. Murray is interesting; they have a balanced attack with seven guys averaging over 20 minutes per game and five guys averaging over eight points per game. The exact opposite of Tenn. Martin; Murray does not have the firepower but has a consistent outlook that could give some teams without alot of depth some trouble.
Matchup to Watch: Final
- Obviously the biggest game of the tournament, but it will certainly be the best matchup. Tenn. Martin versus whoever will raise interest and get a national audience to see Hudson, something NBA scouts need to see. Hudson faltered on the big stage, caving in during road games at Tennessee and USC. The key will be how Martin handles a deep Murray team or a rock hard Austin Peay team that went to the NCAAs last season.
Potential Cinderella: Tennessee State (12-17)
- Yes the Tigers got killed by Murray State and Tenn Martin at home in back-to-back games. Yes they dropped eight of nine in January. But they are playing real good basketball having won six straight, three of which on the road. The Tigers had a seven game road trip in December where they played Alabama, Kentucky and Georgia Tech. Sure they got killed, but they gained comfort on the road. Nothing they will see will shock them, and I think they may be ready to take a big step here. They avoid juggernaut Tenn Martin in the upper half of the bracket and get Austin Peay in the first round.
Predicted Champ: Tennessee-Martin
- Lester Hudson will not let this team lose. Period.
The Daily Gus: March 2nd
Welcome to Bracketville. We all reside in this state of mind for a month out of the calendar, a month which all of America is transfixed on sheets of integrity of their own bracket predictions. Predictions which many times will falter on the first day of the NCAA Tournament. Conference tournaments get underway this week with the mid-majors tipping off in the tourneys that actually mean something; not the collective four day money-grubbing fan fests. So this week belongs to the little guys, carving out their spot on the corner of the dance floor. We will have previews of each conference tournament on the day they tip.
First, this weekend featured teams clinching regular season titles and some bubble teams making some big performances as well as some teams maybe coming out of the woodwork to be legit national contenders.
Teams of the weekend
- Kansas. The Jayhawks throttled Missouri in a big time revenge game on national television to snag their 13th win in 14 games. The Jayhawks are peaking at the right time, and completed a great week where they got the big win in Norman against a top five Oklahoma team (sans Blake Griffin) and then a game they needed after blowing a second half lead against Mizzou two weeks ago. Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich are playing like two players who have won a national title before and KU captures a regular season Big 12 title this week. Again.
- Georgetown. Could absolutely positively could not afford another loss, and needed a big time win. They accomplished both on Saturday afternoon by traveling to Philadelphia and beating Villanova. The Hoyas are now 16-12 and have the toughest schedule in all of America. They have road wins at 'Nova and UCONN and really have no poor losses on the entire schedule. The problem is the quantity of those losses, 12 of them. If they end the season in the Big East semis with 13 losses, GTown is making the dance.
- Virginia Tech. The Hokies went into Saturday knowing they could control their own destiny. Three games in seven days against ranked teams, two of which at home against UNC and Duke. By no means an easy task, but at the same time, they hold a spot which alot of bubble teams wish they could have. Tech has alot of losses on their resume and not alot of meat to speak for other than a diminishing road win at Wake Forest when they were number one. Who knows, that maybe enough, but not enough to feel confident especially after dropping the first one to Duke. Tech has got to get one of these last two and a win or two in the ACC tourney.
- BYU. They had the nation's longest win streak destroyed earlier this year when Wake went in to the Marriott Center and punched the Cougars in the mouth. BYU has been up and down all season in a real tough Mountain West. Not exactly a bubble team, the Cougars have figured prominently in most mock brackets all year, but they picked up the biggest win of the year against rival Utah Saturday. Utah has exceeded all expectations, leading the Mountain West wire to wire and BYU beating them cements their spot in the field. The Mountain West is by far the most underrated league in the country. They should get four teams in the field (UNLV, Utah, BYU, SDSU) and could possibly squeeze in New Mexico with a late surge by the Lobos.
- Florida. Why do you do this to college basketball fans? The Gators were playing for seeding as far as most advanced basketball minds were concerned, and then last week happened. Just win one game. Florida visits LSU and gets beat in the last few minutes, then hosts Tennessee on Sunday. Florida could have knocked Tennessee out of NCAA talks, but instead put themselves in a dicey situation. Bruce Pearl's Vols went into "The Swamp" and came out with a sticky 79-75 win. Florida now faces two games they better win; a contest in Starkville against Mississippi State on Wednesday night and then a home showdown against two bubblers, Kentucky on Sunday. If not, the SEC Tournament becomes vital for Florida, a team in the top 20 just two weeks ago.
First, this weekend featured teams clinching regular season titles and some bubble teams making some big performances as well as some teams maybe coming out of the woodwork to be legit national contenders.
Teams of the weekend
- Kansas. The Jayhawks throttled Missouri in a big time revenge game on national television to snag their 13th win in 14 games. The Jayhawks are peaking at the right time, and completed a great week where they got the big win in Norman against a top five Oklahoma team (sans Blake Griffin) and then a game they needed after blowing a second half lead against Mizzou two weeks ago. Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich are playing like two players who have won a national title before and KU captures a regular season Big 12 title this week. Again.
- Georgetown. Could absolutely positively could not afford another loss, and needed a big time win. They accomplished both on Saturday afternoon by traveling to Philadelphia and beating Villanova. The Hoyas are now 16-12 and have the toughest schedule in all of America. They have road wins at 'Nova and UCONN and really have no poor losses on the entire schedule. The problem is the quantity of those losses, 12 of them. If they end the season in the Big East semis with 13 losses, GTown is making the dance.
- Virginia Tech. The Hokies went into Saturday knowing they could control their own destiny. Three games in seven days against ranked teams, two of which at home against UNC and Duke. By no means an easy task, but at the same time, they hold a spot which alot of bubble teams wish they could have. Tech has alot of losses on their resume and not alot of meat to speak for other than a diminishing road win at Wake Forest when they were number one. Who knows, that maybe enough, but not enough to feel confident especially after dropping the first one to Duke. Tech has got to get one of these last two and a win or two in the ACC tourney.
- BYU. They had the nation's longest win streak destroyed earlier this year when Wake went in to the Marriott Center and punched the Cougars in the mouth. BYU has been up and down all season in a real tough Mountain West. Not exactly a bubble team, the Cougars have figured prominently in most mock brackets all year, but they picked up the biggest win of the year against rival Utah Saturday. Utah has exceeded all expectations, leading the Mountain West wire to wire and BYU beating them cements their spot in the field. The Mountain West is by far the most underrated league in the country. They should get four teams in the field (UNLV, Utah, BYU, SDSU) and could possibly squeeze in New Mexico with a late surge by the Lobos.
- Florida. Why do you do this to college basketball fans? The Gators were playing for seeding as far as most advanced basketball minds were concerned, and then last week happened. Just win one game. Florida visits LSU and gets beat in the last few minutes, then hosts Tennessee on Sunday. Florida could have knocked Tennessee out of NCAA talks, but instead put themselves in a dicey situation. Bruce Pearl's Vols went into "The Swamp" and came out with a sticky 79-75 win. Florida now faces two games they better win; a contest in Starkville against Mississippi State on Wednesday night and then a home showdown against two bubblers, Kentucky on Sunday. If not, the SEC Tournament becomes vital for Florida, a team in the top 20 just two weeks ago.
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