55. San Diego State, 54. Cleveland State

55. San Diego State
The Aztecs won 20 games last season and finished fourth in the Mountain West behind BYU, New Mexico and UNLV, but earned a trip to the NIT where they traveled across the country to get thumped by Florida in the first round. Steve Fisher featured a young team who exceeded some expectations and captured their third consecutive 20-win season and has now successfully stamped SDSU as a Mountain West mainstay threat. 6-6 forward Lorenzo Wade led the Aztecs last season with 15 points per game, 5 boards per game and an impressive four assists per game as a swing man. Wade transferred from Louisville after his freshman season and has shined ever since he has been under the toasty San Diego sun.
This season could be Fisher’s most talented team, and as a result his best chance to capture a Mountain West title. The Mountain West may be the best mid-major league in the country this year, but the Aztecs have a legitimate reason to think they could crack the top 25. They will get national exposure in a weak Great Alaska Shootout field and should be undefeated going into a big time game at Arizona in early December. They also get WAC foe Fresno State and BCS school Arizona State at home to begin the season. They play Saint Mary on a neutral court in Anaheim where they could get another quality win. San Diego State could legitimately be undefeated going into Mountain West play and in the top 25. Wade is the most well-rounded player in the mountain West and will have to be exceptional for SDSU to reach their goals. Also in the frontcourt 6-8 forward Ryan Amoroso who led the team in rebounding with seven per game. Amoroso is a Marquette transfer who can bang inside. 6’8 Billy White also provides bulk on the inside. The returning freshman of the year in the MWC averaged nine and six last season and he can step out allowing more room for Wade and Amoroso to work. 6-5 senior Kyle Spain and 6-7 sophomore Tim Shelton also look to see minutes; both of whom averaged double figures for the Aztecs last season and add to the already exceptionally athletic SDSU frontcourt. In the backcourt, 5-10 senior Richie Williams will lead the troops; he has played in 91 games and made 76 starts in his career. Last season Williams averaged three assists per contest before an injury kept him out of the end of the campaign. D.J. Gay stepped in for Williams and averaged six points per game and started 26 games in his freshman year. Gay and Williams figure to be the starting backcourt for Fisher’s club and will have to score and get the bigs involved.
The Aztecs are really deep and feature a lot of talent. Combine that with Fisher’s coaching experience and juggling a lot of talent (Fab Five at Michigan in the early ‘90s) and the Aztecs have the potential to be real good. I think they will challenge UNLV for the league title; although I do not think they are quite as talented in the backcourt which will cost them. The Mountain West is incredibly deep, so they will have the opportunity to get RPI-bolsters throughout the conference schedule. The difficult thing will be bringing it every night and winning tough games on the road which can be tough in this league. Wade could win MWC player of the year honors and if he does, expect the Aztecs to be bumping around the bottom of the top-25 and certainly with an NCAA bid.


54. Cleveland State
Cleveland State surprised nearly everyone in the Horizon league and national landscape last season, reversing their record from 10-21 to 21-13 and receiving an invitation to the NIT where they lost at Dayton in the first round. The Vikings started out 14-5 and 7-0 in the Horizon league where they knocked off #12 Butler at home and there were rumblings of a Horizon league title. They then proceeded to lose five in a row before winning seven of their last eight. The Vikings faced Butler again in the Horizon title game, but could not overcome the Bulldog experienced firepower. An incredibly successful campaign after being picked ninth in the ten team league and earning a postseason appearance for the first time since 1988.

Cleveland State returns four starters and two Horizon league first teamers from a year ago who will certainly be the focal point of the conference this year. J’Nathan Bullock averaged 15 a game along with seven boards; he’s 6-5, 240 and a senior. Bullock is a force and knows what its like to be part of the Viking rebuilding project, earning 28 wins in three seasons before 21 last year. Bullock earned first team honors as being the brute force for the Vikings and providing the stud on the interior Gary Waters needed. On the perimeter, Cedric Jackson is a St. John’s transfer who averaged 14, four and four for the Vikes last year. Jackson will be running the point again for the Vikings, and he will have to improve on his nearly 1:1 assist-to-turnover ratio last season. Bullock also figures to change his role, stepping more outside and extending the defenses, no Vikings shot better than 30% except for Bullock and Jackson. The Vikings have the two best players in the conference and that is why they are the preseason pick as tops in the conference, and they will now have opportunities to contend with some BCS caliber schools. A “neutral” game in Seattle against Washington, road trips to West Virginia and Syracuse as well as the BracketBuster opponent should all give the Vikings a chance to contend on a national stage.
Cleveland State is in an interesting position. Talent wise they have the ability to be a top-five mid major team this season, but none of these players have ever experienced national success much less even conference wins. Last season right after they snatched the lead and controlled their own destiny after beating Butler, they lost five in a row. That cannot happen in this season where they will be hunted every night and get every team’s best in the Horizon. They are lethal at home, dropping only two games all season, one of which to NIT champion Ohio State, but they will be forced to win conference road games this year if they want to capture the league crown and be a force on the national stage for the first time in years.

57. Oklahoma State, 56. South Carolina

57. Oklahoma State
Sean Sutton resigned after a disappointing 17-16 season where they squeaked into the NIT where they got beat in the first round. The Cowboys finished tied for seventh in the Big 12, their worst finish in over five years and thus caused the end of the Sutton era in Stillwater. Home victories over Kansas and Texas Tech coupled with a quarterfinal appearance in the Big 12 tourney provided some bright spots, but the low point was a 16-point drubbing at the hands of fellow Oklahomans, Oral Roberts.
Former Massachusetts coach Travis Ford takes over the Pokes for this season, and immediately a rebuilding job has to be done. Four starters return, none more important than 5-11 guard Byron Eaton. Eaton certainly does not resemble a blue chip stud, but he might end up being the best point guard in the Big 12 this season. Ford will look to Eaton to be more consistent at the point guard spot, and improve on his third-team all conference this past season. “I expect Byron to be one of the best point guards in the country this season,” Ford said. Eaton certainly has the skill set and opened the country’s eyes on national television last year when he scored 26 points in a victory over national champion Kansas. Also returning is 6-6 sophomore guard James Anderson who led the Pokes in scoring last year with 13 per game and hit 67 three pointers as a frosh. “Anderson is a future NBA guard” Ford said. Returning guards Terrel Harris and Obi Muonelo should bolster the backcourt but do not expect them to shoulder much of the scoring, it should be limited to Eaton and Anderson. The Pokes have nothing inside; 6-11 sophomore Ibrahima Thomas gets lost and wanders outside, taking 34 three pointers last season, but he did start 27 games. The Cowboys are loaded with post players who extend themselves outside as perimeter forces which will certainly extend the defense. However, expect them to be at the bottom of the league in the rebounding margin.
Oklahoma State will be fine from the perimeter, that much is certain. Eaton, Anderson and Harris could be one of the premiere backcourts in the conference and will win some games for Oklahoma State against smaller teams. Points in the paint, rebounding, second chance points will be nonexistent; there is not a team with less inside talent for their skill set outside as Oklahoma State. However, I will put faith in Ford to instill a system which will work. Uptempo, scoring quick and often and then locking up other backcourts will be the key to Big 12 success, but it is still a rebuilding year in terms of goals. This team will surprise some, especially at home at Gallagher-Iba Arena, but I think an NCAA appearance in a deep Big 12 will end up being unlikely.

56. South Carolina

A 14-18 season where you lose your head coach (Dave Odom) who is a legend and has seen success at every level he has coached. Odom had seen three 20-win seasons and back-to-back NIT championships in 2005 and 2006 before faltering the last two winning 14 games each season. Odom announced his retirement in January, amidst a restless state of the program and talking heads speculating about Odom’s motives. Last year 5-9 guard Devan Downey averaged 18 per game coupled with 3.2 steals per contest and led the team at the point guard spot. According to fellow defenses, Downey might be the quickest guard in the league evidenced by his steal numbers. Downey was the lone bright spot as a transfer from Cincinnati, second in assists, leading the SEC in steals and seventh in scoring.
Coupled with Downey this season will be guards Zam Frederick and Brandis Raley-Ross. Frederick is one of the many Gamecock designated three point assassins who hit at a 35% clip last year and benefits largely from Downey’s penetration. Raley-Ross did not shoot as many as Frederick but when he did he hit; going 37-of-72 from behind the arc, which would have earned him the most accurate shooter in the nation if he had enough attempts (2.5 makes per). 6-7 junior Evaldas Baniulis shot 44% from three last season, 42-of-95, stretching out the defense, opening up the lane for Downey and then being a lethal catch and shooter for South Carolina. As evidence by these statistics, shooting and perimeter issues will not be a problem for former Western Kentucky coach Darrin Horn’s first campaign in Columbia. What will be an issue is inside. “We are not big, we’ve got some depth on the interior, but we’re not big,” Horn told Blue Ribbon Yearbook, “Rebounding and defense are going to be issues for us.”
The Gamecocks lose nobody from last season, but how are they expected to be successful if they could only muster up 14 wins the last two seasons with these same guys? It may be tough due to the quality of the SEC and more specifically the east division. However, combine Downey’s quickness and ability to penetrate into the lane with these perimeter shooters and all of a sudden this team becomes capable of knocking down shots and spacing out defenders. From a strictly raw talent perspective, the Gamecocks could finish dead last in the SEC East, but if they manage to knock down shots and Downey continues to defend and steal as he did last season, I think Darrin Horn will enjoy his first season in Columbia. I expect South Carolina to be in the upper tier of the league and return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2004.

59. Maryland, 58. Massachusetts

59. Maryland
Last season Maryland had a roller coaster ride that ended up the same way the last few seasons had ended; an NIT berth after falling off the bubble fence in late February. The Terps had an awful non conference season by their standards; dropping six games, all six in the D.C. metropolitan area. As soon as the conference season startd, Gary Williams managed to get the team rolling, starting with a win at then #1 UNC. The Terps hung their hats on that victory all the way until Selection Sunday, but losing six of their last eight in conference and in the opening round of the ACC Tournament cost them an NCAA spot. The Terps must find a valuable replacement for both of their big men inside; James Gist and Bambale Osby combined for 49 minutes, 15 boards and 27 points per game last year as seniors.
Maryland returns both of their starting guards, Grievis Vasquez and Eric Hayes. Vasquez led the team in scoring last season, averaging 17 a game, and Hayes was the team’s top perimeter threat. The Terps only have one senior, Dave Neal, who had only one start and averaged less than eight minutes per game. Therefore with Hayes and Vasquez, Maryland has a foundation for the next two seasons on the perimeter. Unfortunately the ACC is littered with big men this season and things are mighty thin up front. Sophomores Braxton Dupree, Jerome Burney and Dino Gregory will all play vital roles as returning sophomores; none of whom are defined and have yet to prove themselves on such a stage.
Maryland has a reason for excitement: young experience in the backcourt and potential in the frontcourt. The problem will be adjusting to a very difficult schedule which features the Old Spice Classic and an obviously demanding conference schedule. Maryland should return to the NCAAs, but it will not be easy. They must win the games they are supposed to at home in the non-con to put themselves in position for wiggle room in the ACC.

58. Massachusetts

Coach Travis Ford led the Minutemen to a 25-win season and a trip to the NIT championship where they lost to Ohio State in the final. The Minutemen started out 11-2 with impressive road wins at Boston College and Syracuse and against Houston at home. Then the schedule picked up and lost seven of ten at the outset of the A-10 schedule, which really cost them a shot at an at-large bid. Losing in the A-10 quarters also ended their dreams for a NCAA appearance, but ended on a high note in the NIT.
The Minutemen lose high scorer swingman Gary Forbes, but guard Chris Lowe returns for new head coach Derek Kellogg. Kellogg was an assistant at Memphis and hopes to bring the quick, uptempo Memphis game to Amherst. Lowe led the A-10 in assists last year and helped Forbes earn player of the year honors in the league. The scoring will be dependent on junior guard Ricky Harris. Harris averaged 18 per last season and will have to improve even more than last season when he earned A-10 Most Improved player award. Harris knocked down an astounding 104 three pointers and should match that total with the amount of touches he looks to get this season. “Having two guys (Lowe and Harris) who have proven themselves is great,” Kellogg said. Inside the Minutemen have a lot of size. 7-1 center Luke Bonner and 6-8 Tony Gaffney both provide senior leadership for this team as they both played in all 35 games last season. Three underclassmen provide bulk to the Minutemen interior which should help keep them fresh and able. Freshmen Tyrell Lynch and Travon Wilcher both come in expecting to see significant minutes replacing both Gaffney and Bonner.
Umass has the skills to go to the NCAA Tournament, but compared to everyone else in the league they may end up being a step behind St. Joe and Xavier. They are deep, talented and really athletic, but transitioning to Kellogg’s system and ways could cause some growing pains for what is an incredibly experienced starting rotation. Blend the returnees with some explosive newcomers and this Massachusetts team will be rolling come February and certainly a force in March. Expect another 25-win season for the Minutemen.