Friday, December 5, 2008

The Weekend Look-Ahead: December 5th-7th

Friday:
Arizona (5-1) @ Texas A&M (5-1)
Arizona has transitioned nicely since the UAB loss, winning four home games against mid-majors, the only close one being a three point win over Santa Clara. Chase Budinger is averaging 21 on the season, and is the only scoring option for the 'Cats. Tonight starts a crucial five game stretch where they face UNLV, San Diego State, A&M, Kansas and Gonzaga. They could possibly be 5-6 at the end of 2008. A&M is slowly gliding itself into the season; reverting back to the slow pace that brought them out of the depths of the Big 12. It is Josh Carter's team for his senior season after living behind Dominique Kirk, Joseph Jones and Acie Law for three years. Carter is averaging 14 a game and shooting 40% from the land of plenty. The Aggies played their first four games at home against low majors who they trampled then lost at Tulsa. In their last game they won at Kent State, so a decent road win should set them up nicely for tonight.
The Play: A&M has a little more depth than Arizona, plus the game is at College Station; I'll take the Aggies 66-62.

Saturday
Vanderbilt (5-2) @ Georgia Tech (4-1)
Georgia Tech got beat at home to Penn State on Wednesday in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge proving a failed logic to Paul Hewitt's easy scheduling. Vanderbilt is coming off of a 16 point shocking home loss to Illinois-Chicago after winning the Cancun Challenge. A.J. Ogilvy will need to be huge in this game, but something has to give; both teams are looking to rebound from a poor performance earlier in the week.
The Play: AJ Ogilvy versus Tech's Ganai Lawal will be a real intriguing inside matchup. Ogilvy much more complete, should lead the Commodores to a great road win. Vandy 71-65.

Rhode Island (6-2) @ Providence (5-3)

The battle of the small state has bigtime impact on recruiting and bragging rights within the Ocean state. Jimmy Baron will look to get his threes off for URI, and I think Providence's athleticism will give him some trouble scoring. Providence still seems to be reeling after an opening home loss to Northeastern, and will need every ounce of their talent to beat a fast improving Rhode Island squad.
The Play: Providence has got to come out ready and prepared to guard and run for 40 minutes, which I cannot believe they will do until I see it. URI pressures all 40 minutes, 82-73 and Baron gets 25.

(4) Duke (8-0) @ Michigan (5-2)

Don't get your hopes up Ann Arbor.
The Play: They won't be able to combat Kyle Singler; Duke wins by 15.

Ohio State (4-0) @ (7) Notre Dame (6-1)

UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEKEND
Interesting play here; Luke Harangody is out indefinitely, so it will be Kyle McAlarney's game to win. With Ohio State's smothering defense, they could give the Irish shooters some trouble getting open looks, and if so with the lack of an interior presence, the Bucks have an incredible shot if they can rebound and shoot just 40%.
The Play: I like Ohio State here; they are certainly not better than Notre Dame, but the Irish are due for a cool down from the field, and without Harangody in their mixing up, they have problems. Ohio State just got a great road win at Miami, they can get an upset here. 68-63 Ohio State.

(21) Miami (FL) (4-2) @ Kentucky (5-2)

Quick. Name the last time Miami would be favored at Kentucky. Youre a liar if you thought it was inside Rupp Arena and not on the Lexington gridiron. The Canes will be without first-team all-ACCer James McClinton, suspended after his punch during the Ohio State game Tuesday. They imploded after his ejection, and there could be a hangover tomorrow. If theres ever a chance for Billy Gillespie to right the ship and get a good win this is it.
The Play: UK realllly needs a good win, and this is one that just screams off the page. Wildcats 72-60.

VCU (4-3) at William & Mary (3-5)

VCU is 0-2 on the road as they revisit the team that dashed their NCAA hopes last season in the CAA semifinals. Both teams are a little different this season, but Eric Maynor is in the top ten in the nation in scoring; he's averaging 25 a game for the Rams. VCU could use a conference opening win, but if William and Mary can utilize the zone that slowed down the Rams in the CAA last season, they will always have a shot.
The Play: Look for the 1-3-1 W&M put on VCU last year, and if it's as effective, things will be turned upside down again in the Colonial. VCU is a little bigger this season, and the Tribe can't hold Maynor down all night; VCU 71-64.

Colorado State (3-4) @ Boise State (5-1)
Boise is 5-0 at home this season and just escaped with an 86-85 win over Wyoming Wednesday night; they now welcome another Mountain West foe to the Taco Bell Arena. Boise relies on 6'7 forward Mark Sanchez on both sides of the floor; hes averaging 17 a game and has been named WAC player of the week in November and has scored 20+ twice. Boise got crushed by 30 in their one loss, at Siena in a BracketBuster return, but the Broncos are a tough out at home.
The Play: Colorado State has four losses by a combined 16 points; although a loss to D-II St. Martin's was not encouraging. A helter-skelter team going into hostile Boise will struggle for sure. Boise 72-59.

Wisconsin (6-1) @ (25) Marquette (6-1)
GAME OF THE WEEKEND
The battle of for the cheese. The annual Wisconsin rivalry rekindles its magic Saturday as Dominic James versus Travon Hughes should provide boatloads of entertainment. Marquette lost on a neutral court to Dayton last Saturday, but is unbeaten at home as they face their certainly toughest test to date. Wisconsin comes off of a huge win at Virginia Tech where they needed some last minute Badger magic to escape with a victory.
The Play: Wisconsin cannot score with Marquette, but Marquette has not faced defense nearly this tough all season. The Badger D will keep them in it, but will not give them the victory. James will get his and the Golden Eagles win at home, 68-62.

Sunday
(23) Florida (6-1) @ Florida State (7-1)
The Noles got beat at Northwestern in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, and really showed some weakness in their first true test all year. Still they hold a gaudy 7-1 record which must be valued, and Florida has looked anything but impressive in their last three wins since their loss to Syracuse in the CBE Classic. The first true road test for a young Florida team could spell some trouble in Tallahassee as the Noles are real tough at home.
The Play: Will be alot closer than the Noles/Gators football version, and the Noles have to be given a puncher's chance. Nick Calathes will be able to score whenever he wants because the Noles have no desire to play defense. FSU has enough athleticism, but not enough raw talent, Gators 82-72.

No comments: