The early season tip-off tournaments provide a great way to display the nation's top teams and allow for some marquee matchups along the way while fans and viewers watch during their holiday festivities. This season really captivated my eye with all of the big name tournaments like the Old Spice Classic, the 76 Classic and the Maui Invitational. This year, we can take a ton from all of these, and although no teams really involved in the national title picture, a slew of teams involved who will shake things up in the major conferences come February and March. Some thoughts:
- Everyone believed Mark Few had an empty cupboard with the defections of Jeremy Pargo and Josh Heytvelt at Gonzaga. The Kennel though held on to Matt Bouldin who is finally coming around and the Zags are big inside with the maturation of sophomore Robert Sacre and freshman Elias Harris. While young, Gonzaga got three good wins on the islands; they beat Big 12 Colorado in a thriller where they struggled and then looked like a different team. They beat Wisconsin by 13 and then Cincinnati in the title game in a smashmouth, Big Ten type game. Sacre grew up in front of the Lahaina Civic Center, pouring in 14 of the Zags 61 points in the overtime victory. Gonzaga has a really good starting five and if they continue to mature will be a force in the top 25 all year. Really interesting game tonight against Washington State in Spokane...Wazzu captured the Great Alaska Shootout.
- Another WCC team that made a splash over the holiday was the Portland Pilots. Portland was expected to be in the mix of the WCC race, but not expected to contend this early in such a quality tournament liek the 76 classic that featured four ranked teams. Portalnd reached the title game with an absolute thrashing of UCLA in the first round, 74-47 then beat a really good Minnesota team 61-56. They showed they can win in the halfcourt as well as with the press and the backcourt of T.J. Campbell and Nik Raivio is a real force averaging a combined 33 per game. Portland got dropped by West Virginia in the title game; by 18 nonetheless, but that game does not set the tone for what Portland accomplished. Now ranked in the top 25, Portland showed they have arrived and will be formidable competition in a tough WCC this year.
- A disappointing team down in the Old Spice Classic in Orlando this past weekend was Michigan. The Wolverines entered the weekend with a number 15 ranking and the only one with such an achievement in the field. THey quickly watched the ranking vanish as they lost to both Alabama and Marquette after narrowly beating Creighton on a Thanksgiving Day game they really should have lost if not for Manny Harris. Michigan has a legitimate Big Ten POY candidate in Harris, but are lacking after interior force DeShawn Sims. Alabama's press really got to the Wolverines to keep them in it and Marquette's speed made Michigan look like a team unable to cope with speed and athleticism from that of the Big Ten.
Preseason tournaments provide the greatest way for fans to become familiar with the teams who will matter every season and players who can take over games. This season the teams that made a jump were Portland, Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Florida State and Florida who beat Michigan State the day after Thanksgiving. Teams who seemed tripped off of Triptophan were Michigan State, UCLA, Michigan and Maryland. The great thing about these tournaments is that its so early it allows teams to garner improvement while also providing excitement for the teams who made a stir.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Friday, November 6, 2009
Season Sneak Preview: Major Conferences Part I
Midnight to March will be evaluating conferences from the top all the way to the bottom as we get fans ready for the tip off to the regular season on Nov. 9th. We begin our season sneak preview with a look at the major conferences, first the ACC, Big East and Big Ten.
ACC
The ACC last season was a dominant conference last season, sending seven teams to the NCAA Tournament. Once they competed on a national stage, hwoever, the ACC sent only two teams to the second weekend, proving they just beat up themselves during the conference season. North Carolina was your 2009 national champions and they will reload once again but will miss that senior leadership of Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson which guided them to their title. Instead they will be led by sophomore Ed Davis who has some tremendous growing to do and shoes to fill after coming off the bench a year ago. Davis and Deon Thompson will look to lead the Heels back to the top. Averaging seven and six last year as the UNC sixth man, Davis will look to fulfill his potential and be a top ACC performer…Duke returns the dynamic duo of Kyle Singler and Jon Scheyer and they look to have the most versatile team in the conference. For the first time this decade, Coach K will run his offense predominantly through two big men, and Jon Scheyer will be running the point, a far cry from the major scoring role he took on the past two seasons…Georgia Tech looks to make the biggest improvement in the conference; the Yellow Jackets return impressive big man Ganai Lawal. The 6-9, 230 forward averaged 15 and 10 last season and flirted with the NBA Draft before deciding to return to play another year under Paul Hewitt. A great decision because Tech went ahead and surrounded Lawal with some real ballers. Freshman Derrick Favors is the top ACC incoming freshman and will play alongside Lawal in Tech’s frontline. Tech will be able to match Carolina inside as well as Duke as the ACC begins to take shape of a physical, size-oriented league this season.. Maryland also added some bulk inside to go with the trend of recruiting bigs for ACC squads this season, but that really isn’t the main concern. We know Greivis Vasquez will play hard and be a renaissance man of the hardwood, coming close to triple-doubles in every game, but the Terps need to find another scorer, somewhere. Whether its inside or outside Maryland will not be the top tier ACC squad if they can’t find that; the most likely candidate is sophomore guard Sean Mosley. Mosley needs to step in the role left by Eric Hayes and increase his production and with that the success in College Park. The rest of the ACC all faces rebuilding challenges; Miami must replace scorer Jack McClinton…Boston College must replace Tyrese Rice…Florida State must replace Toney Douglas...Wake Forest must replace Jeff Teague. A team that could sneak around the chicken coop is Virginia Tech. With Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen returning the Hokies are big and talented inside and should be able to score at ease. The problem will be the Hokies perimeter defense and willingness to go on the road and win big games, something they were unable to do last season.
Fearless Predictions
1. UNC
2. Duke
3. Georgia Tech
4. Maryland
5. Wake Forest
6. Virginia Tech
7. Florida State
8. Miami (FL)
9. Clemson
10. Boston College
11. NC State
12. Virginia
Big East
Last year the Big East sent eight teams to the Big Dance and THREE number one seeds. Connecticut, Louisville and Pittsburgh all snagged top seeds and Villanova won 30 games, reaching the Final Four. The Big East loses a whole heck of a lot this season however and does not have the stranglehold on the top conference in America this year by a landslide. Gone are the top players from those three number one seeds and they were good (Hasheem Thabeet, DeJuan Blair, Sam Young, Terrence Williams, LeVance Fields, Earl Clark, etc) and here come the guys you heard of last season. Scottie Reynolds and Villanova are the preseason Big East favorites, but they are favored because the Wildcats are so much more than just Reynolds now. Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes are a force in the backcourt along Reynolds and bring fans back to the days just a few years ago when Villanova was lethal with Mike Nardi, Randy Foye and Allan Ray. That team reached the elite 8 and this Villanova team has already gotten to a Final Four. They lose Dante Cunningham but a cream of the crop recruiting class leads everyone to believe the Wildcats should return to the Final Four if the freshmen mature…West Virginia and Georgetown are both teams that will exponentially improve this season. Georgetown big man Greg Monroe stole the scene early in the season last year before the Hoyas went on a treacherous losing skid, but the 6-11 frosh averaged 13 and 7 in a subservient scoring role to swingman DaJuan Summers. Summers abdicated to the NBA which leaves Monroe with all the control; a preseason all-American, expectations are high again for JT3 in the nation’s capital and G’Town will be back. Huggy Bear returns with Devin Ebanks and Da’Sean Butler; two guys that can flat out play with anyone in the country. I believed that the preseason ranking for the Mountaineers was a little low, but two suspensions, one of point guard Joe Mazzulla and one of post force Darryl Bryant leave the jury out in Morgantown…Syracuse must replace Paul Harris, Jonny Flynn and Eric Devendorf. But Syracuse reloa….d….s….oh no. A collective groan was released from the Carrier Dome last Tuesday night when cross-town division II school LeMoyne trucked in and beat Syracuse. Although just an exhibition, it revealed some holes in the Orange squad…they can’t shoot, they can’t score, they don’t really have much size and they don’t know how to defend yet. That spells trouble for the upstate New Yorkies; at least Jim Boeheim knows how to schedule cupcakes, they leave the state of New York one time until a January 16th showdown at West Virginia, that’s 16 games for those of you counting at home…Yes, Connecticut will still be great; Stanley Robinson will become eligible once again in December and Kemba Walker began to show flashes of brilliance late in the season for the Huskies, so there is no reason to fret in Storrs. The only trouble could be replacing point guard AJ Price, but Jerome Dyson returns from his injury that crippled Conn last season…Pittsburgh and Marquette both lost a lot to graduation and NBA defections, but they will reload as will Louisville…A surprising team could be Cincinnati. The Bearcats are headed in the right direction and Deonta Vaughn is an all-Big East kind of performer who has averaged over 15 points in all three of his seasons while doubling as a point guard. Yancy Gates, a 6-9 homegrown talent from Cincy, should be able to compliment Vaughn better this season and make Cincinnati take great strides and bounce back into the bracket. A team destined for disappointment once again may have to be Notre Dame…The Fighting Irish return all-american Luke Harangody, but Mike Brey still does not have this team defend and that is why they will remain in the mediocrity of the Big East. Every Big East team can score, but not every team can defend. That is exactly why you saw the pressing abilities of Villanova and Louisville and the physicality of UCONN and Pittsburgh be so successful last season.
FEARLESS PREDICTIONS
1. Villanova
2. Georgetown
3. West Virginia
4. Connecticut
5. Cincinnati
6. Pitt
7. Louisville
8. Syracuse
9. Notre Dame
10. Seton Hall
11. Marquette
12. Providence
13. Rutgers
14. Depaul
15. St. John’s
16. South Florida
Big Ten
Remember that time the Big Ten may have a legitimate gripe to get seven teams into the NCAA Tournament in back to back years? Me neither, because it has not happened in my lifetime. The Big Ten may be as strong as it has ever been this season, returning nearly everyone back for preseason number two Michigan State, preseason number seven Purdue, preseason number 15 Michigan and 16 Ohio State. The Big Ten sent seven teams last season, and all with the exception of Wisconsin should return this season. Michigan State should be a top seed and Final Four threat to go to Indianapolis this season with Kalin Lucas and Raymar Morgan returning. To find faults in the Spartans is like trying to decipher Morse Code, difficult and painstaking…Matt Painter’s Purdue team was a slight letdown in March, barely winning their first two games and not even showing up against Connecticut in the Sweet 16. JaJuan Johnson looks for a big season inside to play with Robbie Hummel. Hummel was an all-Big Ten performer last season, but was injured in February, missed three games, returned, but not with the same tenacity and swagger he gave the Boilers two seasons ago or early in the ’08-’09 campaign. Ohio State returns its entire core with the exception of BJ Mullens who defected to the NBA., and that should keep Columbus happy as the Bucks are clearly third best in the league. Evan Turner is a great talent and could win POY in the Big Ten, and Ohio State has four guards who can all run, score and defend, which is something not many Big Ten teams have, even Michigan State. However, they got inexperience and size issues inside, which will cripple their running abilities if they can’t defend or rebound on the defensive side…Michigan is going to be really good. Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims are great, and a lethal dynamic duo that can play with anyone in the country. The Wolverines will defend and will shoot, a lot. They are ready to take the next step into the national spotlight where they have not been in ten years. The only issue is in the backcourt and running the offense. Freshman Darius Morris will probably be playing the point, and that is a worry for Ann Arbor. But John Beiliein knows what he is doing, and if Morris is ready, he will get the nod...Wisconsin is the worrisome team in the Big Ten; Trevon Hughes is back which means Wisconsin will still be a tough out because he will be a first or second team all conference player. But missing Marcus Landry and Joe Krabbenhoft inside is huge for Bo Ryan’s team this season; they lack a post presence and will have a severe drop-off after a second round appearance last season...Penn State probably should have made the NCAA Tournament last season; instead, they won the NIT, to claim number 66 in the field. The Nittany Lions will have to replace a lot this season however, losing their top three scorers; 6-10 forward Andrew Jones will shoulder the brunt of the shoes to fill as he steps into a starting role to keep Happy Valley improving. The improved team of the season this year will be Northwestern…The Wildcats have Kevin Coble who is as versatile a player that Northwestern as ever had. Coble averaged 16, 5 and 3 assists from the forward spot last season and can defend in the Wildcats zone…The Big Ten will either sink or swim this season; a possibility of six or seven bids can happen. But if the wrong things happen in the non-con, and teams don’t mature as expected, it could dwindle to three.
FEARLESS PREDICTIONS
1. Michigan State
2. Purdue
3. Michigan
4. Ohio State
5. Minnesota
6. Northwestern
7. Penn State
8. Indiana
9. Wisconsin
10. Illinois
11. Iowa
Next…Big 12, Pac10, SEC
ACC
The ACC last season was a dominant conference last season, sending seven teams to the NCAA Tournament. Once they competed on a national stage, hwoever, the ACC sent only two teams to the second weekend, proving they just beat up themselves during the conference season. North Carolina was your 2009 national champions and they will reload once again but will miss that senior leadership of Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson which guided them to their title. Instead they will be led by sophomore Ed Davis who has some tremendous growing to do and shoes to fill after coming off the bench a year ago. Davis and Deon Thompson will look to lead the Heels back to the top. Averaging seven and six last year as the UNC sixth man, Davis will look to fulfill his potential and be a top ACC performer…Duke returns the dynamic duo of Kyle Singler and Jon Scheyer and they look to have the most versatile team in the conference. For the first time this decade, Coach K will run his offense predominantly through two big men, and Jon Scheyer will be running the point, a far cry from the major scoring role he took on the past two seasons…Georgia Tech looks to make the biggest improvement in the conference; the Yellow Jackets return impressive big man Ganai Lawal. The 6-9, 230 forward averaged 15 and 10 last season and flirted with the NBA Draft before deciding to return to play another year under Paul Hewitt. A great decision because Tech went ahead and surrounded Lawal with some real ballers. Freshman Derrick Favors is the top ACC incoming freshman and will play alongside Lawal in Tech’s frontline. Tech will be able to match Carolina inside as well as Duke as the ACC begins to take shape of a physical, size-oriented league this season.. Maryland also added some bulk inside to go with the trend of recruiting bigs for ACC squads this season, but that really isn’t the main concern. We know Greivis Vasquez will play hard and be a renaissance man of the hardwood, coming close to triple-doubles in every game, but the Terps need to find another scorer, somewhere. Whether its inside or outside Maryland will not be the top tier ACC squad if they can’t find that; the most likely candidate is sophomore guard Sean Mosley. Mosley needs to step in the role left by Eric Hayes and increase his production and with that the success in College Park. The rest of the ACC all faces rebuilding challenges; Miami must replace scorer Jack McClinton…Boston College must replace Tyrese Rice…Florida State must replace Toney Douglas...Wake Forest must replace Jeff Teague. A team that could sneak around the chicken coop is Virginia Tech. With Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen returning the Hokies are big and talented inside and should be able to score at ease. The problem will be the Hokies perimeter defense and willingness to go on the road and win big games, something they were unable to do last season.
Fearless Predictions
1. UNC
2. Duke
3. Georgia Tech
4. Maryland
5. Wake Forest
6. Virginia Tech
7. Florida State
8. Miami (FL)
9. Clemson
10. Boston College
11. NC State
12. Virginia
Big East
Last year the Big East sent eight teams to the Big Dance and THREE number one seeds. Connecticut, Louisville and Pittsburgh all snagged top seeds and Villanova won 30 games, reaching the Final Four. The Big East loses a whole heck of a lot this season however and does not have the stranglehold on the top conference in America this year by a landslide. Gone are the top players from those three number one seeds and they were good (Hasheem Thabeet, DeJuan Blair, Sam Young, Terrence Williams, LeVance Fields, Earl Clark, etc) and here come the guys you heard of last season. Scottie Reynolds and Villanova are the preseason Big East favorites, but they are favored because the Wildcats are so much more than just Reynolds now. Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes are a force in the backcourt along Reynolds and bring fans back to the days just a few years ago when Villanova was lethal with Mike Nardi, Randy Foye and Allan Ray. That team reached the elite 8 and this Villanova team has already gotten to a Final Four. They lose Dante Cunningham but a cream of the crop recruiting class leads everyone to believe the Wildcats should return to the Final Four if the freshmen mature…West Virginia and Georgetown are both teams that will exponentially improve this season. Georgetown big man Greg Monroe stole the scene early in the season last year before the Hoyas went on a treacherous losing skid, but the 6-11 frosh averaged 13 and 7 in a subservient scoring role to swingman DaJuan Summers. Summers abdicated to the NBA which leaves Monroe with all the control; a preseason all-American, expectations are high again for JT3 in the nation’s capital and G’Town will be back. Huggy Bear returns with Devin Ebanks and Da’Sean Butler; two guys that can flat out play with anyone in the country. I believed that the preseason ranking for the Mountaineers was a little low, but two suspensions, one of point guard Joe Mazzulla and one of post force Darryl Bryant leave the jury out in Morgantown…Syracuse must replace Paul Harris, Jonny Flynn and Eric Devendorf. But Syracuse reloa….d….s….oh no. A collective groan was released from the Carrier Dome last Tuesday night when cross-town division II school LeMoyne trucked in and beat Syracuse. Although just an exhibition, it revealed some holes in the Orange squad…they can’t shoot, they can’t score, they don’t really have much size and they don’t know how to defend yet. That spells trouble for the upstate New Yorkies; at least Jim Boeheim knows how to schedule cupcakes, they leave the state of New York one time until a January 16th showdown at West Virginia, that’s 16 games for those of you counting at home…Yes, Connecticut will still be great; Stanley Robinson will become eligible once again in December and Kemba Walker began to show flashes of brilliance late in the season for the Huskies, so there is no reason to fret in Storrs. The only trouble could be replacing point guard AJ Price, but Jerome Dyson returns from his injury that crippled Conn last season…Pittsburgh and Marquette both lost a lot to graduation and NBA defections, but they will reload as will Louisville…A surprising team could be Cincinnati. The Bearcats are headed in the right direction and Deonta Vaughn is an all-Big East kind of performer who has averaged over 15 points in all three of his seasons while doubling as a point guard. Yancy Gates, a 6-9 homegrown talent from Cincy, should be able to compliment Vaughn better this season and make Cincinnati take great strides and bounce back into the bracket. A team destined for disappointment once again may have to be Notre Dame…The Fighting Irish return all-american Luke Harangody, but Mike Brey still does not have this team defend and that is why they will remain in the mediocrity of the Big East. Every Big East team can score, but not every team can defend. That is exactly why you saw the pressing abilities of Villanova and Louisville and the physicality of UCONN and Pittsburgh be so successful last season.
FEARLESS PREDICTIONS
1. Villanova
2. Georgetown
3. West Virginia
4. Connecticut
5. Cincinnati
6. Pitt
7. Louisville
8. Syracuse
9. Notre Dame
10. Seton Hall
11. Marquette
12. Providence
13. Rutgers
14. Depaul
15. St. John’s
16. South Florida
Big Ten
Remember that time the Big Ten may have a legitimate gripe to get seven teams into the NCAA Tournament in back to back years? Me neither, because it has not happened in my lifetime. The Big Ten may be as strong as it has ever been this season, returning nearly everyone back for preseason number two Michigan State, preseason number seven Purdue, preseason number 15 Michigan and 16 Ohio State. The Big Ten sent seven teams last season, and all with the exception of Wisconsin should return this season. Michigan State should be a top seed and Final Four threat to go to Indianapolis this season with Kalin Lucas and Raymar Morgan returning. To find faults in the Spartans is like trying to decipher Morse Code, difficult and painstaking…Matt Painter’s Purdue team was a slight letdown in March, barely winning their first two games and not even showing up against Connecticut in the Sweet 16. JaJuan Johnson looks for a big season inside to play with Robbie Hummel. Hummel was an all-Big Ten performer last season, but was injured in February, missed three games, returned, but not with the same tenacity and swagger he gave the Boilers two seasons ago or early in the ’08-’09 campaign. Ohio State returns its entire core with the exception of BJ Mullens who defected to the NBA., and that should keep Columbus happy as the Bucks are clearly third best in the league. Evan Turner is a great talent and could win POY in the Big Ten, and Ohio State has four guards who can all run, score and defend, which is something not many Big Ten teams have, even Michigan State. However, they got inexperience and size issues inside, which will cripple their running abilities if they can’t defend or rebound on the defensive side…Michigan is going to be really good. Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims are great, and a lethal dynamic duo that can play with anyone in the country. The Wolverines will defend and will shoot, a lot. They are ready to take the next step into the national spotlight where they have not been in ten years. The only issue is in the backcourt and running the offense. Freshman Darius Morris will probably be playing the point, and that is a worry for Ann Arbor. But John Beiliein knows what he is doing, and if Morris is ready, he will get the nod...Wisconsin is the worrisome team in the Big Ten; Trevon Hughes is back which means Wisconsin will still be a tough out because he will be a first or second team all conference player. But missing Marcus Landry and Joe Krabbenhoft inside is huge for Bo Ryan’s team this season; they lack a post presence and will have a severe drop-off after a second round appearance last season...Penn State probably should have made the NCAA Tournament last season; instead, they won the NIT, to claim number 66 in the field. The Nittany Lions will have to replace a lot this season however, losing their top three scorers; 6-10 forward Andrew Jones will shoulder the brunt of the shoes to fill as he steps into a starting role to keep Happy Valley improving. The improved team of the season this year will be Northwestern…The Wildcats have Kevin Coble who is as versatile a player that Northwestern as ever had. Coble averaged 16, 5 and 3 assists from the forward spot last season and can defend in the Wildcats zone…The Big Ten will either sink or swim this season; a possibility of six or seven bids can happen. But if the wrong things happen in the non-con, and teams don’t mature as expected, it could dwindle to three.
FEARLESS PREDICTIONS
1. Michigan State
2. Purdue
3. Michigan
4. Ohio State
5. Minnesota
6. Northwestern
7. Penn State
8. Indiana
9. Wisconsin
10. Illinois
11. Iowa
Next…Big 12, Pac10, SEC
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Welcome to the Show
An exciting day for college basketball takes shape. Everything that is wrong but yet fun about NCAA hoops comes true today with the release of the Preseason top 25 poll by USA Today and ESPN. The season is now just ten days away, so plenty of time for previewing and analyzing teams of promise, potential and disappointment. At Midnight to March we are back for another action-packed season that looks quite formidable on paper, but we have a few secrets for the college basketball faithful that says its cut and dry what everyone should believe. Here is a look at the first poll...followed by some reaction.
1 Kansas
2 Michigan State
3 Texas
4 North Carolina
5 Kentucky
6 Villanova
7 Purdue
8 Duke
9 West Va
10 Butler
11 Tennessee
12 Cal
13 Washington
14 Connecticut
15 Michigan
16 Oklahoma
17 Ohio State
18 Minnesota
19 Mississippi State
20 Georgia Tech
21 Georgetown
22 Dayton
23 Louisville
24 Clemson
25 Syracuse
Pontifications
- So we'll start with the idea of preseason polls. The new sentiment out has become preseason polls ruin college athletics. While I mostly agree with this statement, they provide a basis for what to look for and what to expect for the season. For the average fan, they would have no idea if Dayton was figured to be atop the Atlantic 10 or if they were expected to be the ninth best team in Ohio. Preseason polls let us know this; they also give us a tremendous amount of stability. For example, last season's preseason number one was North Carolina and while not being at the top for all the season, in the end, the pollsters were correct. Kansas in 2008 was number 6 in the preseason...Florida number one in 2007. Florida's first title was an exception in 2006, the Gators were ranked 17. These polls give fans something to get excited about, and something for other fans to worry about but also keeping those expectations they have built in their psychological delusion of fanhood. So I'm okay with these polls, just, don't put too much stock in them, much of it will change.
- We will start at the top with number one Kansas. KU should be atop any preseason poll this season with the best team returning and much of the same swagger as the 07-08 team possessed. Last year it was Sherron Collins and Cole Alrich's team and they were moments from getting to the Elite 8 before getting beat by Tom Izzo's Michigan State (national title rematch??). The Jayhawks return everyone from that core team, and look to be a year stronger. Kansas possesses the unenviable position as odds-on favorite, but they do have some weaknesses. Kansas can score, they averaged 77 per game in their uptempo offense last season and lethal combination of Collins and Aldrich. Their problem comes in the willingness to defend. The Jayhawks periodically lull into moments where they don't even bother to defend teams that want to run. They get beat once and the help isn't there. Evidenced on the road with games such as at Texas Tech, at Arizona early last season and the early flop to Baylor in the Big 12 tournament. Signs of immaturity which this KU team probably will not have issues with. For Bill Self's sake, he's got a juggernaut of a squad that could cut the nets down in March.
- So...a team beats the preseason number one twice last season, including once in the NCAAs and they return everyone too. How are they not number one??? Great question and I do not have an answer. Kalin Lucas returns for Michigan State and he keeps Raymar Morgan and Durrell Summers with him. The defection of Goran Suton will hinder Sparty inside for the beginning of the season, but the way these guys looked in March, if they continue that, they are better than the Jayhawks. Impressive performances over Louisville in the Elite 8 and Connecticut in the Final Four give evidence that Tom Izzo's team will still defend and now has explosiveness for the guys from East Lansing. Lucas will add his name alongside Mateen Cleaves, Magic Johnson and Eric Snow. This MSU team will have issues inside, and games against Texas, North Carolina and Florida early could illustrate that.
Quick Hitters
- Kentucky at number five (higher than they should be) after everyone said they would be number one. No team will snag a top ranking with five freshmen on the top of the list to contribute.
- Thankfully Butler gets a high preseason ranking. Horizon POY Matt Howard may be a top five big man in the country, and the Bulldogs definitely deserve this high, if not higher. The Bulldogs will get a shot at some big timers as well, playing in the 76 Classic where they open with Minnesota. Could be a big time season for Hinkle.
- Michigan gets a lofty ranking early...John Beilein wiggled this team into the second round and will be very sneaky this year in a promising Big Ten. Great scheduling as well...the only early season test will be the Wolverines going to Lawrence to face KU.
- Rick Stansbury's Mississippi State club is poised for a big time year in a down SEC (yet again). 6-9 Jarvis Varnado averaged 13 and 9 last season and the show will be his this season, so watch out. The Bulldogs combine very imposing size with an easy schedule early (they don't leave home until Dec. 12 at UCLA) to garner some attention. Your top SEC team folks! (you heard me Knoxville and Lexington).
- 5 Big Ten teams in the top 25 (Purdue, Michigan, Ohio State, Minnesota and MSU) leads me to believe this season will be stressing physical basketball which does not lead to exciting games. The Big Ten is terrible to watch for a fan looking for entertainment and I really don't think the Big Ten will have much success nationally. None of these teams except Michigan State can stay on the floor athletically with Big 12 and ACC teams.
- Can Siena get some love??? Back to back NCAA appearances just doesn't go as far as it used to. The top mid-major power this season outside of Butler, the Saints hung with Louisville in the second round in Dayton and got a great win over Ohio State in Dayton as well. Edwin Ubiles is a star and Siena should get back to the 'Dance. Some early season winnable tests against "power" conference teams will certainly look good come March.
- With a little more than a week away, I can't wait to tip it off.
1 Kansas
2 Michigan State
3 Texas
4 North Carolina
5 Kentucky
6 Villanova
7 Purdue
8 Duke
9 West Va
10 Butler
11 Tennessee
12 Cal
13 Washington
14 Connecticut
15 Michigan
16 Oklahoma
17 Ohio State
18 Minnesota
19 Mississippi State
20 Georgia Tech
21 Georgetown
22 Dayton
23 Louisville
24 Clemson
25 Syracuse
Pontifications
- So we'll start with the idea of preseason polls. The new sentiment out has become preseason polls ruin college athletics. While I mostly agree with this statement, they provide a basis for what to look for and what to expect for the season. For the average fan, they would have no idea if Dayton was figured to be atop the Atlantic 10 or if they were expected to be the ninth best team in Ohio. Preseason polls let us know this; they also give us a tremendous amount of stability. For example, last season's preseason number one was North Carolina and while not being at the top for all the season, in the end, the pollsters were correct. Kansas in 2008 was number 6 in the preseason...Florida number one in 2007. Florida's first title was an exception in 2006, the Gators were ranked 17. These polls give fans something to get excited about, and something for other fans to worry about but also keeping those expectations they have built in their psychological delusion of fanhood. So I'm okay with these polls, just, don't put too much stock in them, much of it will change.
- We will start at the top with number one Kansas. KU should be atop any preseason poll this season with the best team returning and much of the same swagger as the 07-08 team possessed. Last year it was Sherron Collins and Cole Alrich's team and they were moments from getting to the Elite 8 before getting beat by Tom Izzo's Michigan State (national title rematch??). The Jayhawks return everyone from that core team, and look to be a year stronger. Kansas possesses the unenviable position as odds-on favorite, but they do have some weaknesses. Kansas can score, they averaged 77 per game in their uptempo offense last season and lethal combination of Collins and Aldrich. Their problem comes in the willingness to defend. The Jayhawks periodically lull into moments where they don't even bother to defend teams that want to run. They get beat once and the help isn't there. Evidenced on the road with games such as at Texas Tech, at Arizona early last season and the early flop to Baylor in the Big 12 tournament. Signs of immaturity which this KU team probably will not have issues with. For Bill Self's sake, he's got a juggernaut of a squad that could cut the nets down in March.
- So...a team beats the preseason number one twice last season, including once in the NCAAs and they return everyone too. How are they not number one??? Great question and I do not have an answer. Kalin Lucas returns for Michigan State and he keeps Raymar Morgan and Durrell Summers with him. The defection of Goran Suton will hinder Sparty inside for the beginning of the season, but the way these guys looked in March, if they continue that, they are better than the Jayhawks. Impressive performances over Louisville in the Elite 8 and Connecticut in the Final Four give evidence that Tom Izzo's team will still defend and now has explosiveness for the guys from East Lansing. Lucas will add his name alongside Mateen Cleaves, Magic Johnson and Eric Snow. This MSU team will have issues inside, and games against Texas, North Carolina and Florida early could illustrate that.
Quick Hitters
- Kentucky at number five (higher than they should be) after everyone said they would be number one. No team will snag a top ranking with five freshmen on the top of the list to contribute.
- Thankfully Butler gets a high preseason ranking. Horizon POY Matt Howard may be a top five big man in the country, and the Bulldogs definitely deserve this high, if not higher. The Bulldogs will get a shot at some big timers as well, playing in the 76 Classic where they open with Minnesota. Could be a big time season for Hinkle.
- Michigan gets a lofty ranking early...John Beilein wiggled this team into the second round and will be very sneaky this year in a promising Big Ten. Great scheduling as well...the only early season test will be the Wolverines going to Lawrence to face KU.
- Rick Stansbury's Mississippi State club is poised for a big time year in a down SEC (yet again). 6-9 Jarvis Varnado averaged 13 and 9 last season and the show will be his this season, so watch out. The Bulldogs combine very imposing size with an easy schedule early (they don't leave home until Dec. 12 at UCLA) to garner some attention. Your top SEC team folks! (you heard me Knoxville and Lexington).
- 5 Big Ten teams in the top 25 (Purdue, Michigan, Ohio State, Minnesota and MSU) leads me to believe this season will be stressing physical basketball which does not lead to exciting games. The Big Ten is terrible to watch for a fan looking for entertainment and I really don't think the Big Ten will have much success nationally. None of these teams except Michigan State can stay on the floor athletically with Big 12 and ACC teams.
- Can Siena get some love??? Back to back NCAA appearances just doesn't go as far as it used to. The top mid-major power this season outside of Butler, the Saints hung with Louisville in the second round in Dayton and got a great win over Ohio State in Dayton as well. Edwin Ubiles is a star and Siena should get back to the 'Dance. Some early season winnable tests against "power" conference teams will certainly look good come March.
- With a little more than a week away, I can't wait to tip it off.
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Dance Floor: March 15th
It's Selection Sunday. That's all you really need to know. 65 teams will be placed into a bracket where prognostication and prediction will be analyzed heavily over the next four days in preparation for a final four as well as a Cinderella. I have made my final projection, even down to the last minute with Mississippi State stealing Saint Mary's bid and squandering the field a little more than it already was. Here's the last projection:
East (Boston) West (Phoenix) Midwest (Indy) South (Memp)
1 North Carolina Connecticut Louisville Pittsburgh
2 Michigan State Memphis Oklahoma Duke
3 Missouri Kansas Wake Forest Syracuse
4 Villanova Gonzaga Xavier Washington
5 Purdue Utah Tennessee LSU
6 Marquette Illinois W Va UCLA
7 Clemson Florida State Arizona State Texas
8 BYU Butler Ohio State Cal
9 Utah State BC Siena Dayton
10 Oklahoma State Texas A&M Wisconsin Minnesota
11 Arizona USC Michigan Temple
12 Maryland Miss State VCU Cleveland State
13 W Kentucky Akron ND State N iowa
14 Binghamton E Tennessee St Cornell American
15 Robert Morris CS Northridge Portland State Steph F Austin
16 Radford Morgan State BamaSt/Chatt Morehead State
HIGH SEED HOSTS:
Greensboro --> Duke, UNC
Philadelphia --> Villanova, Pittsburgh
Minneapolis --> Michigan State, Xavier
Boise --> Oklahoma, Wake
Miami --> Memphis, Syracuse
Portland --> Gonzaga, Washington
Kansas City --> Kansas, Missouri
Dayton --> Louisville, Connecticut
East (Boston) West (Phoenix) Midwest (Indy) South (Memp)
1 North Carolina Connecticut Louisville Pittsburgh
2 Michigan State Memphis Oklahoma Duke
3 Missouri Kansas Wake Forest Syracuse
4 Villanova Gonzaga Xavier Washington
5 Purdue Utah Tennessee LSU
6 Marquette Illinois W Va UCLA
7 Clemson Florida State Arizona State Texas
8 BYU Butler Ohio State Cal
9 Utah State BC Siena Dayton
10 Oklahoma State Texas A&M Wisconsin Minnesota
11 Arizona USC Michigan Temple
12 Maryland Miss State VCU Cleveland State
13 W Kentucky Akron ND State N iowa
14 Binghamton E Tennessee St Cornell American
15 Robert Morris CS Northridge Portland State Steph F Austin
16 Radford Morgan State BamaSt/Chatt Morehead State
HIGH SEED HOSTS:
Greensboro --> Duke, UNC
Philadelphia --> Villanova, Pittsburgh
Minneapolis --> Michigan State, Xavier
Boise --> Oklahoma, Wake
Miami --> Memphis, Syracuse
Portland --> Gonzaga, Washington
Kansas City --> Kansas, Missouri
Dayton --> Louisville, Connecticut
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Dance Floor: March 6th
Well, predicted Big South champion Liberty got the axe by VMI in the anticipated game of the Big South tournament. VMI waxed the Flames by 20 on Radford's home floor. Now the Keydets will move on to face Radford on Saturday for the first spot in the NCAAs. 2008 MVC champion Drake also out in the opening round of Arch Madness; Indiana State picked up their first win taking down Drake 63-55. Now Indiana State has the tall task of battling Northern Iowa to really kick things off. Six tournaments either started on Thursday or get things tipped on Friday, and here are some previews.
ATLANTIC SUN
Semis: Friday
Finals: Saturday (ESPN2 6 p.m.)
Team to Watch: East Tennessee State
- The A-Sun has the single weirdest tournament bracket ever created. Only seven teams are featured in the conference tournament, a national low, but the one seed also gets a bye to the semifinals, the only granted bye in the tournament. The first round features the two ans seven seeds playing, the three and six and then the four and five. It's Greek to me. Who really knows. The principle of the matter is East Tennessee State got basically a warm-up game in on Wednesday night when they faced Stetson and cruised to a 14-point win. Kevin Tiggs can hoop and he proved it against Stetson, going for 37 points in the victory. With the tournament being played in Nashville, the Bucs have some home court advantage as they try and snag their first berth since they lost to Wake Forest and Josh Howard back in 2003. They got the most wins in the A-Sun and probably the most overall talent. They lost six conference games by a combined 37 points, evidence they brought it every night.
Cinderella: Belmont
- The Bruins would have been a Cinderella. Nearly beating Duke last year in the first round, they have essential experience and have do-it-all Alex Renfroe back for another season. Renfroe led the Bruins in every major statistical category and went for 38 in the season finale to regular season champion Jacksonville this evening.
Matchup to Watch: Semifinal Friday night (E Tennessee State vs. Belmont)
- As mentioned above, two guys that can really get it done offensively are featured in this one tomorrow night. Tiggs can take it from distance or post up smaller guards, he averages 21 a game. Renfroe can get it done himself or get others involved, he does everything to help Belmont be in position to win, but he can certainly take over a game if he has to.
Predicted Winner: Jacksonville
- Although the semifinal will be the game to watch and Belmont and E Tennessee have shown the capability to beat Jacksonville, I don't think they have the depth and athleticism to do it on the biggest stage. Jacksonville was the best team in the league all conference long, as they ran off ten in a row after a conference opening loss at East Tennessee. Jacksonville clips East Tennessee in a nail-biting final which should represent the A-Sun very well.
CAA
First Round: Friday
Quarters: Saturday
Semis: Sunday
Finals: Monday March 9 (7 p.m. ESPN)
A wide open tournament where any team from one to seven has a legitimate shot to think they can win this thing. A good year for the Colonial, but by no means great. No out of conference depth to speak of and a parity filled quality mid-major league just does not go as far as it used to. Having said that, there are alot of quality teams in this league that can run and gun with the best of them, and certainly some players that can make waves on a national scene. Whoever wins the CAA has the possibility to win a game or two in the Big one.
Team to Watch: Northeastern
- The Huskies led the regular season much of the way before dropping five of their last seven to fall all the way to the number three spot and tied for fourth. Matt Janning is a first-team all conference performer and has the ability to fill it up at anytime. The Huskies went down to Richmond and punched league champion VCU in the mouth, marking its high point of the league reign. They must once again find the swagger that led them to the huge victory and hope that a return to Richmond will signify that turnaround. They get a little bit of a break probably facing Drexel and then a George Mason team they match up extremely well with in the semifinal. Look for Northeastern to be there come title time.
Cinderella: Old Dominion
- Is Old Dominion at the number four spot a Cinderella? Probably not. And three weeks ago this team looked poised for a first round CAA exit. They traveled to Hofstra on Feb. 21 and got beat by nine, dropping them to sixth place and ways out of the discussion for a possible title. Then league rival VCU came to town and ODU got the win they needed. THey have not looked back, winning their last five including two close road wins. The Monarchs have the best post player in the league in Gerald Lee, and if you do not rebound against the Monarchs they wil ldestroy you inside with second chances.
Matchup: Mason/Northeastern (potential semi)
- Game 1, Mason leads by four with under two remaining when point guard John Vaughn suffers a concussion which would keep him out for two weeks, and transform Mason's season...Northeastern gets the win by one.
- Game 2, Northeastern travels to Mason where the Patriots were laying in the nest waiting for revenge. It was at the peak of Northeastern's five of seven game losing skid.
This will be the game of the tournament if it goes down because both teams are similar. Physical styles with guards that can fill it up. Mason has Vaughn, sniper Dre Smith and slasher Cam Long, all of which have gone for 25+ this season. Northeastern has Janning and slasher Chaisson Allen who is extremely long for his position. Inside it will be a brutal war. Mason's Darryl Monroe versus Northeastern's Manny Adako. Just sounds like a heavyweight battle. Northeastern finds a way to win with their brute strength.
Predicted Winner: VCU
- An extremely tepid selection here, the Rams are finally starting to play the basketball that CAA enthusiasts expected them to play with from the beginning. VCU went to JMU last Wednesday and picked up a win they would not have gotten in January and then dismantled Georgia State for Eric Maynor's senior day. The bracket lines up very interestingly for VCU however; they could face Delaware in the quarters who beat them at home in January, then Old Dominion, a rival who beat them just three weeks ago in Norfolk and then a rematch with Northeastern or George Mason. Northeastern beat them at home, and when VCU beat Mason, the Patriots were without point guard John Vaughn. With all that aside, Eric Maynor is a top five guard in the country and should be in the Dance.
Southern
First Round: Friday
Quarters: Saturday
Semis: Sunday
Finals: Monday (ESPN, 7 p.m.)
It starts and ends with Davidson. The Wildcats have quickly become the posterchild for mid-majors and the flagship program of the Southern Conference. Win and everything is well, all publicity positive and the hype will be everywhere. Lose and the SoCon's worst nightmare comes true...a probable 15-16 seed.
Team to Watch: Davidson
- If Stephen Curry were a team, he would be the team to watch. Instead its the Wildcats; two conference losses, both at home to the Citadel and Charleston came when Curry was not at his best. The nation's leading scorer, Curry averages 28.4 for Davidson but also leads them in assists. He does everything for them and will control this tournament. IF some defense can do something to stop him, it will go a long way into figuring out the Davidson plan..."Give it to Stephen, and hope everything is okay."
Cinderella: Charleston
- Again, how can a second place team in the division behind Davidson be considered a Cinderella? And the answer is simple, anyone who even plays Davidson close is a Cinderella because the hype is all over them. Charleston already beat the Wildcats once, went 23-7 with a 15-5 conference record. They have wins against South Carolina and TCU on the resume so they can roll with the bigger boys. They have won seven of their last eight and five in a row to end the season. Only problem, they may draw Davidson in the semifinals.
Matchup to Watch: Citadel vs. Davidson (potential final)
- Charleston/Davidson will probably be more interesting of a game, but the Citadel has a shot to be a real shocker here if they can catch Davidson or whoever off guard in the title game. The Bulldogs are relevant again in the SoCon, a shocker to the whole public; they won 11 straight league games in February and completed their first 20-win season in quite some time. They have won 11 of 12 with their only loss coming last Wednesday at Wofford, a team they were swept by in league play. They got Davidson at the perfect time, Curry was out with an ankle injury. But the Bulldogs got a little swagger to their name and if they can get there provide an interesting final.
Predicted Winner: Davidson
- It may be more interesting this season, but there is no way the result will be any different. I will be shocked if Davidson finds a way to blow this, Curry knows when to take a game over, especially in March. Expect the Wildcats to be dancing for the third straight season.
ATLANTIC SUN
Semis: Friday
Finals: Saturday (ESPN2 6 p.m.)
Team to Watch: East Tennessee State
- The A-Sun has the single weirdest tournament bracket ever created. Only seven teams are featured in the conference tournament, a national low, but the one seed also gets a bye to the semifinals, the only granted bye in the tournament. The first round features the two ans seven seeds playing, the three and six and then the four and five. It's Greek to me. Who really knows. The principle of the matter is East Tennessee State got basically a warm-up game in on Wednesday night when they faced Stetson and cruised to a 14-point win. Kevin Tiggs can hoop and he proved it against Stetson, going for 37 points in the victory. With the tournament being played in Nashville, the Bucs have some home court advantage as they try and snag their first berth since they lost to Wake Forest and Josh Howard back in 2003. They got the most wins in the A-Sun and probably the most overall talent. They lost six conference games by a combined 37 points, evidence they brought it every night.
Cinderella: Belmont
- The Bruins would have been a Cinderella. Nearly beating Duke last year in the first round, they have essential experience and have do-it-all Alex Renfroe back for another season. Renfroe led the Bruins in every major statistical category and went for 38 in the season finale to regular season champion Jacksonville this evening.
Matchup to Watch: Semifinal Friday night (E Tennessee State vs. Belmont)
- As mentioned above, two guys that can really get it done offensively are featured in this one tomorrow night. Tiggs can take it from distance or post up smaller guards, he averages 21 a game. Renfroe can get it done himself or get others involved, he does everything to help Belmont be in position to win, but he can certainly take over a game if he has to.
Predicted Winner: Jacksonville
- Although the semifinal will be the game to watch and Belmont and E Tennessee have shown the capability to beat Jacksonville, I don't think they have the depth and athleticism to do it on the biggest stage. Jacksonville was the best team in the league all conference long, as they ran off ten in a row after a conference opening loss at East Tennessee. Jacksonville clips East Tennessee in a nail-biting final which should represent the A-Sun very well.
CAA
First Round: Friday
Quarters: Saturday
Semis: Sunday
Finals: Monday March 9 (7 p.m. ESPN)
A wide open tournament where any team from one to seven has a legitimate shot to think they can win this thing. A good year for the Colonial, but by no means great. No out of conference depth to speak of and a parity filled quality mid-major league just does not go as far as it used to. Having said that, there are alot of quality teams in this league that can run and gun with the best of them, and certainly some players that can make waves on a national scene. Whoever wins the CAA has the possibility to win a game or two in the Big one.
Team to Watch: Northeastern
- The Huskies led the regular season much of the way before dropping five of their last seven to fall all the way to the number three spot and tied for fourth. Matt Janning is a first-team all conference performer and has the ability to fill it up at anytime. The Huskies went down to Richmond and punched league champion VCU in the mouth, marking its high point of the league reign. They must once again find the swagger that led them to the huge victory and hope that a return to Richmond will signify that turnaround. They get a little bit of a break probably facing Drexel and then a George Mason team they match up extremely well with in the semifinal. Look for Northeastern to be there come title time.
Cinderella: Old Dominion
- Is Old Dominion at the number four spot a Cinderella? Probably not. And three weeks ago this team looked poised for a first round CAA exit. They traveled to Hofstra on Feb. 21 and got beat by nine, dropping them to sixth place and ways out of the discussion for a possible title. Then league rival VCU came to town and ODU got the win they needed. THey have not looked back, winning their last five including two close road wins. The Monarchs have the best post player in the league in Gerald Lee, and if you do not rebound against the Monarchs they wil ldestroy you inside with second chances.
Matchup: Mason/Northeastern (potential semi)
- Game 1, Mason leads by four with under two remaining when point guard John Vaughn suffers a concussion which would keep him out for two weeks, and transform Mason's season...Northeastern gets the win by one.
- Game 2, Northeastern travels to Mason where the Patriots were laying in the nest waiting for revenge. It was at the peak of Northeastern's five of seven game losing skid.
This will be the game of the tournament if it goes down because both teams are similar. Physical styles with guards that can fill it up. Mason has Vaughn, sniper Dre Smith and slasher Cam Long, all of which have gone for 25+ this season. Northeastern has Janning and slasher Chaisson Allen who is extremely long for his position. Inside it will be a brutal war. Mason's Darryl Monroe versus Northeastern's Manny Adako. Just sounds like a heavyweight battle. Northeastern finds a way to win with their brute strength.
Predicted Winner: VCU
- An extremely tepid selection here, the Rams are finally starting to play the basketball that CAA enthusiasts expected them to play with from the beginning. VCU went to JMU last Wednesday and picked up a win they would not have gotten in January and then dismantled Georgia State for Eric Maynor's senior day. The bracket lines up very interestingly for VCU however; they could face Delaware in the quarters who beat them at home in January, then Old Dominion, a rival who beat them just three weeks ago in Norfolk and then a rematch with Northeastern or George Mason. Northeastern beat them at home, and when VCU beat Mason, the Patriots were without point guard John Vaughn. With all that aside, Eric Maynor is a top five guard in the country and should be in the Dance.
Southern
First Round: Friday
Quarters: Saturday
Semis: Sunday
Finals: Monday (ESPN, 7 p.m.)
It starts and ends with Davidson. The Wildcats have quickly become the posterchild for mid-majors and the flagship program of the Southern Conference. Win and everything is well, all publicity positive and the hype will be everywhere. Lose and the SoCon's worst nightmare comes true...a probable 15-16 seed.
Team to Watch: Davidson
- If Stephen Curry were a team, he would be the team to watch. Instead its the Wildcats; two conference losses, both at home to the Citadel and Charleston came when Curry was not at his best. The nation's leading scorer, Curry averages 28.4 for Davidson but also leads them in assists. He does everything for them and will control this tournament. IF some defense can do something to stop him, it will go a long way into figuring out the Davidson plan..."Give it to Stephen, and hope everything is okay."
Cinderella: Charleston
- Again, how can a second place team in the division behind Davidson be considered a Cinderella? And the answer is simple, anyone who even plays Davidson close is a Cinderella because the hype is all over them. Charleston already beat the Wildcats once, went 23-7 with a 15-5 conference record. They have wins against South Carolina and TCU on the resume so they can roll with the bigger boys. They have won seven of their last eight and five in a row to end the season. Only problem, they may draw Davidson in the semifinals.
Matchup to Watch: Citadel vs. Davidson (potential final)
- Charleston/Davidson will probably be more interesting of a game, but the Citadel has a shot to be a real shocker here if they can catch Davidson or whoever off guard in the title game. The Bulldogs are relevant again in the SoCon, a shocker to the whole public; they won 11 straight league games in February and completed their first 20-win season in quite some time. They have won 11 of 12 with their only loss coming last Wednesday at Wofford, a team they were swept by in league play. They got Davidson at the perfect time, Curry was out with an ankle injury. But the Bulldogs got a little swagger to their name and if they can get there provide an interesting final.
Predicted Winner: Davidson
- It may be more interesting this season, but there is no way the result will be any different. I will be shocked if Davidson finds a way to blow this, Curry knows when to take a game over, especially in March. Expect the Wildcats to be dancing for the third straight season.
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